MRNA wave III setup signals powerful upside

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) is showing a potentially significant bullish reversal setup on the weekly chart, with the long-term Elliott Wave structure suggesting that a major corrective phase may have ended and a new impulsive advance could be underway. The stock experienced a substantial decline after completing a cycle-degree wave I near the 2021 peak. This was followed by a complex and extended corrective structure that lasted several years. According to the current Elliott Wave count, that correction appears to have completed with wave II near the 2025–2026 lows, around the $20 area. The chart marks the long-term invalidation level at $11.54, keeping the bullish scenario valid as long as price remains above this level.

Following the completion of wave II, Moderna has shown a strong recovery, with price recently accelerating toward the $160 area. The latest move suggests that the stock may have entered the early stages of a larger impulsive advance in wave III.

Moderna stock: Bullish Elliott Wave outlook

The current structure indicates that the initial stages of the new bullish cycle are developing through smaller impulsive subdivisions. While short-term pullbacks can occur as the advance progresses, the larger Elliott Wave structure remains constructive. The projected path on the chart suggests an initial move toward the $200–$210 area, followed by a corrective pullback. A subsequent advance could then target approximately $250, before another correction and a larger extension higher.

This potential sequence would represent a significant recovery from the multi-year lows and could eventually challenge the previous all-time highs if the larger wave III structure continues to develop as expected. For now, the $11.54 invalidation level remains the key risk level for the bullish count. As long as Moderna holds above this level, the Elliott Wave outlook favors further upside rather than another major bearish cycle.

Summary

Overall, Moderna stock appears to be developing a promising long-term bullish setup, with the current recovery potentially marking the beginning of a much larger impulsive advance.