Japanese Yen softens ahead of US CPI inflation data

USD/JPY drifts higher to around 157.55 in Tuesday’s early European session.
Trump weighs return to combat as Iran nuclear talks falter.
Japan’s Katayama said the US and Japan affirm close cooperation on currency moves.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair gains momentum to near 157.55 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lift the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Traders await the release of the US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data later on Tuesday for fresh impetus.

CNN reported on Monday that some US President Donald Trump aides said Trump is now more seriously considering a resumption of major combat operations in Iran. Trump also stated that the ceasefire is on “massive life support” following Iran’s latest counterproposal to end hostilities. Signs of a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran might boost the Greenback in the near term.

The US CPI inflation report will be in the spotlight later in the day. The headline CPI inflation is expected to jump to 3.7% in April from 3.3% in March, driven by surging energy costs tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the core CPI inflation is predicted to rise to 2.7% during the same period from 2.6% in March. A hotter-than-expected report could further delay potential interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and underpin the USD against the JPY.

Nonetheless, the potential upside for the pair might be limited amid intervention fears. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that Japan and the United States (US) reaffirmed their ‌close cooperation on currency moves. Last week, Japan’s top foreign exchange official Atsushi Mimura stated that continued intervention was possible.

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

GBP/USD loses momentum, flirts with 1.3200

GBP/USD is struggling to maintain its positive bias on Thursday, retreating toward the 1.3200 region in response to the pick in the buying interest around the Greenback. That said, Cable remains under scrutiny as cautious market sentiment keeps investors focused on the US-Iran conflict and political effervescence in the UK.

EUR/USD trims gains, challenges 1.1400

EUR/USD now gives away part of its earlier advance, receding toward the 1.1400 contention zone on Thursday. Meanwhile, the pair’s recovery comes amid extra losses in the US Dollar, at the time when while investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and sentiment surrounding global technology stocks.

Gold remains bid and close to $4,100

Gold accelerates its recovery and approaches the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, adding to Thursday’s advance. However, expectations for a hawkish Fed remain steady and keep the yellow metal’s potential upside contained.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin at $60,000, Ethereum at $1,500, and XRP at $1 face a make-or-break test

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) are trading in the red on Friday after three consecutive days of losses, testing their respective make-or-break support levels.

Week ahead – NFP report to challenge Dollar strength and the hawkish Fed

Dollar strength dominates markets, as the hawkish Fed overshadows geopolitics and lower oil prices. NFP week could drive September Fed hike expectations and boost market volatility. The euro lacks fresh bullish catalysts, all eyes on the preliminary inflation report and the ECB Forum.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.