Japanese Yen: Scope remains to revisit 2024 low against US Dollar – UOB

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note sharp intraday swings in USD/JPY after it spiked to 161.92 then fell to 161.06 before closing at 161.54. Intraday, they expect consolidation between 161.10 and 161.90, but its 1–3 week view still looks for a push toward the 2024 high at 162.00 while 160.65 strong support holds.

USD/JPY overbought but still targeting 162.00

"24-HOUR VIEW: The following are excerpts from our update yesterday: “The slight increase in upward momentum suggests upside risk today, but any advance is unlikely to break above 161.85. Support is at 161.20; a breach of 161.00 would indicate that the mild upward pressure has eased.” While USD subsequently broke above 161.85, it pulled back sharply from 161.92 to 161.06. USD rebounded quickly from the low to close 0.16% higher at 161.54. We are not able to derive much from the sharp swings. Today, USD could trade between 161.10 and 161.90."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on USD last Thursday (18 Jun, spot at 160.60). We indicated that USD “is likely to trade with an upside bias, but it remains to be seen if the major resistance at 161.15 is within reach.” After USD surged above 161.15, we highlighted on Friday (19 Jun, spot at 161.25) that “short-term conditions are deeply overbought, but with no sign of a pause yet, USD could rise to the 2024 high of 162.00.” Yesterday, USD rose to 161.92 before pulling back sharply. Although upward momentum has slowed with the pullback, as long as 160.65 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) is not breached, there is still a chance for USD to rise to 162.00."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold fades the earlier optimism; back below $4,200

Gold could not sustain the post-NFP bull run past the $4,200 mark per troy ounce, receding toward the $4,180 region at the end of the week. The precious metal’s inconclusive price action comes amid fresh selling pressure hurting the US Dollar as investors assess the latest NFP data.

Week ahead: Fed minutes in the spotlight amid bond market rout

The first full week of October and the final quarter of the year get underway with little fanfare in terms of the economic agenda. But far from being short on excitement, the coming week will test market nerves, as government bond yields continue to soar on growing worries that the energy crisis will only get worse, fuelling inflation.

CFTC Report: Speculators turn more defensive as Oil exposure falls

The week in one sentence: During the week leading up to September 29, long positions in crude oil were significantly reduced, while short positions in the Canadian Dollar went up. In addition, the positioning of the Australian Dollar and the Japanese Yen declined, while Coffee buying stood out against a more general background of defensiveness.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.