India's HSBC Manufacturing PMI eases in June: What 54.5 means for the Indian Rupee
The preliminary reading of India's HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eases to 54.5 in June versus 55.0 prior, the latest data published by S&P Global and HSBC Bank showed on Tuesday.
The India’s Services PMI declined to 57.3 in June from the previous reading of 59.8, while the Composite PMI fell to 57.4 in June versus 59.3 prior.
The preliminary reading of India's HSBC PMI data for June has little to no impact to the Indian Rupee (INR). The USD/INR pair holds positive ground near 94.65, still marginally up from Monday’s closing price at 94.65.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.09% | 0.45% | 0.28% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | 0.04% | -0.04% | 0.04% | 0.40% | 0.24% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | -0.04% | -0.06% | 0.01% | 0.38% | 0.20% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.44% | 0.27% | 0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.01% | -0.07% | 0.38% | 0.21% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.45% | -0.40% | -0.38% | -0.44% | -0.38% | -0.15% | -0.40% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | -0.24% | -0.20% | -0.27% | -0.21% | 0.15% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.40% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
What do India's HSBC PMI data mean for the Indian Rupee?
India's HSBC Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator gauging business activity in India’s manufacturing sector. The stronger-than-expected figure is seen as bullish on the INR. This report can influence both the Indian Rupee (INR) and expectations for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy, as manufacturing activity provides insights into economic growth and inflation pressures.
Stronger-than-expected PMI readings signal stronger factory activity and economic momentum, reducing expectations for monetary easing, while weaker-than-expected data tends to weigh on the Indian Rupee by raising concerns about growth and increasing the likelihood of a more accommodative RBI stance.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR keeps a positive outlook in the near term
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 94.6550. The pair retains a constructive near-term tone as it holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 93.5420, keeping the broader uptrend supported despite the recent pullback from late-May highs. Price is also trading above the lower Bollinger Band near 94.16, suggesting that the latest decline is more a consolidation within the existing bullish structure than a full-fledged reversal, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 45 denotes neutral momentum after prior overbought readings cooled.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the Bollinger middle band, the 20-day SMA, at roughly 95.14, where a daily close above would reopen the way toward the upper band near 96.11 as the next bullish target. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the lower Bollinger Band around 94.16, with a break there exposing the 100-day SMA at 93.54; a sustained move below this latter level would significantly weaken the prevailing bullish bias and signal scope for a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and HSBC Bank, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in India’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. The PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to survey panels of around 400 manufacturers and 400 service providers. The panels are each stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Indian Rupee (INR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for INR.
Read more.Last release: Mon Jun 01, 2026 05:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 55
Consensus: 54.3
Previous: 54.3
Source: S&P Global
Indian economy FAQs
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR.
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee.
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee.
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
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