India: Russian dependence and security focus – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered economists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand highlight India’s rapidly rising reliance on Russian Oil, now at 44% of crude imports since the Middle East crisis, up from 2% in 2021. They stress that energy security, not cost, is driving this shift, while Middle East and Venezuela supply restoration is needed to materially reduce Russian dependence and modest GDP savings from discounts are fading.

Energy security outweighs cost savings

"India is back in focus following the passage of the Russia sanctions bill, under which countries importing energy from Russia could face additional tariffs of up to 100%. While implementation is subject to US presidential discretion and trade negotiations with India, vulnerabilities exist."

"India’s exposure has risen sharply – Russia accounted for c.44% of India’s crude oil imports by volume in April-July 2026, up from 23% in January-February 2026."

"Energy security, rather than cost, drives India’s dependence on Russian oil, in our view."

"Since the Middle East conflict, the region’s share of India’s crude imports has fallen from 55% in January-February 2026 to 30% in April-July 2026, with Russia meeting most of the shortfall; renewed supplies from Venezuela and Iran have provided only modest relief."

"Cost savings remain modest and are fading. We estimate that Russian crude has generated annual savings of only 0.1-0.2% of GDP since 2022."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)