Gold trades lower despite weaker US Dollar as Fed hike bets weigh
- Gold turns lower on Tuesday as higher energy prices cloud the interest-rate outlook.
- Fed rate-hike expectations keep the near-term outlook challenging for bullion.
- A Head-and-Shoulders pattern is taking shape on the daily chart, with the neckline around $4,350.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot during American trading hours on Tuesday, even as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the defensive. Rising Oil prices and expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike weigh on the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,400 after reaching an intraday high near $4,443.
Tensions in the Middle East intensified after Iran-backed Houthis attacked energy facilities in four southern Saudi cities earlier on Tuesday. The escalation comes after the United States attacked Iranian vessels and Tehran targeted US warships and Oil tankers over the weekend.
Oil prices extend their advance, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading around $91.30 per barrel after reaching $92.48, its highest level since June 8.
The US Dollar, meanwhile, struggles to gain traction despite hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 98.82 after briefly reclaiming 99, hovering near its lowest level in more than two weeks.
The weaker US Dollar offers some support to Gold, but its near-term outlook remains challenging. Although the metal is widely viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical tensions, traders are paying greater attention to how higher Oil prices could affect inflation and interest rates. Gold offers no yield and usually performs better when borrowing costs are low.
The Fed has not raised interest rates so far this year, but policymakers have repeatedly expressed concern about inflation staying above the central bank’s 2% target for too long. Friday’s stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report eased worries about the labour market and gives the Fed more room to keep its focus on inflation.
Attention therefore turns to the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike. The decision is likely to hinge on this week’s US inflation data.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is due on Thursday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. Hotter readings could strengthen the case for a rate hike, while softer figures could ease expectations for higher borrowing costs and offer some relief to Gold.
Technical analysis: Bears eye $4,350 as right shoulder of H&S pattern forms
On the daily chart, XAU/USD holds above the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at around $4,255 and $4,346, respectively, keeping the broader near-term structure supported.
However, a potential Head-and-Shoulders pattern is taking shape, with the right shoulder currently forming. The neckline is located near $4,350 and is reinforced by the 100-day SMA, making this area an important support zone. Momentum is neutral, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 50, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has eased toward 23, suggesting that directional momentum is losing strength.
A decisive break below the $4,350 neckline would confirm the bearish pattern and expose the 50-day SMA near $4,255, followed by horizontal support around $4,150 and the psychological $4,000 mark.
On the topside, immediate resistance comes from the 200-day SMA near $4,537, with a more significant barrier further up at the horizontal level around $4,700. A sustained move above these layers would be needed to re-open a stronger bullish extension in Gold.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Vishal Chaturvedi
FXStreet
I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.
