Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to only react to a big deviation from expectations in NFP – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Gold’s excursion above the $1,900 mark proved short-lived. April Nonfarm Payrolls data from the US will be the last significant data release of the week. However, the jobs report is unlikely to impact Gold Price unless deviates significantly from expectations, economists at Commerzbank report.

Sharp rise in bond yields puts gold under pressure of late

“Gold is set to post its third weekly loss in a row. Bond yields are probably the main factor weighing on its price. Because the market-based inflation expectations have not changed, real interest rates have likewise increased noticeably. This has made gold less attractive as an alternative investment.”

“Market participants are likely to be turning their attention to the US this afternoon, where the official labour market report for April is to be published. The Bloomberg consensus anticipates a lower number of jobs created than in recent months. In our opinion, however, the data are only likely to have any noticeable impact on the gold price if they deviate significantly from expectations.”

See – NFP Preview: Forecasts from 12 major banks, robust job growth

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD stays bid above 0.7100 on Australian trade data, Mideast optimism

AUD/USD clings to minor recovery gains above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, strong AustralianTrade Balane data also help the Aussie pair sustain the bounce from weekly lows.

USD/JPY hovers near the 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high in the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions keep the downside limited in the Greenback and the pair.

Gold rebounds from one-week low as Israel-Lebanon truce pressures safe-haven USD

Gold gains some positive traction on Thursday and climbs to the $4,475 area during the Asian session, reversing a major part of the previous day's slide to a one-week low. The Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and supports the commodity.

Ethereum: Long-term holders' capitulation drives ETH below $1,800

Ethereum has fallen below $1,800 on Wednesday, the first time since May 2025 following accelerated spot selling pressure and distributions from long-term holders. The Age Consumed metric, which tracks the movement of previously idle tokens or long-term holders' coins, spiked over the past two days as prices declined, indicating increased selling activity among this cohort.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.