Gold has resisted higher real rates, strong dollar and fund outflows, but remains vulnerable, in the view of strategists at Société Générale.
Gold has outperformed treasuries and TIPS so far this year
“In the past, we have observed that gold seems to correlate well with three factors – US real rates, the dollar and ETF flows (regression r-squared of almost 95%). However, the price of gold has remained quite elevated compared to the theoretical value yielded by our models.”
“If real rates remain elevated for the foreseeable future, one of the assets that could come under pressure is gold.”
“Gold has outperformed treasuries and TIPS so far this year, but may not be able to resist the high yield for much longer if there is no pivot in the near-term from the Fed.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds gains near 0.7000 amid PBOC's status-quo, Gold price surge
AUD/USD is clinging to mild gains near 0.7000 early Monday. The pair benefits from a risk-on market profile, China's steady policy rates and surging Gold and Copper prices. Focus now remains on Fedspeak for fresh impetus.
Gold eyes $2,450 and Fedspeak for a sustained uptrend
Gold price is off a new lifetime high at $2,441 but looks to extend Friday’s upswing at the start of the week on Monday. The US Dollar is struggling alongside the US Treasury bond yields, as risk sentiment remains in a sweeter spot on China’s stimulus measures.
EUR/USD grinds higher toward 1.0900, Fedspeak eyed
EUR/USD is edging higher toward 1.0900 early Monday, helped by a better market mood. The pair also draws support from softer US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields, awaiting Fedspeak amid light European trading.
Week Ahead: Ethereum and DeFi to come under spotlight this week Premium
Bitcoin’s attempt at a comeback has stirred the pot, causing altcoins to become volatile again. With the US Securities and Exchange Commission set to make its decision on Ethereum ETFs this week, some sectors of altcoins might see higher liquidity and volatility than others.
Week ahead: Flash PMIs, UK and Japan CPIs in focus. RBNZ to hold rates
After cool US CPI, attention shifts to UK and Japanese inflation. Flash PMIs will be watched too amid signs of a rebound in Europe. Fed to stay in the spotlight as plethora of speakers, minutes on tap.