Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to break under $1,745 and start a sustained downtrend in July – TDS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Gold resists breaking bull-market-era trendline. Strategists at TD Securities expect the yellow metal to trend lower on removal of $1,745 by July.

Ongoing position squeeze will prove mild

“The set-up is in gold ripe for another position squeeze, with participants including turning bearish following the decisively hawkish Fed meeting, only to find substantial volume on the bid keeping prices from breaking below their bull-market-era trendline support. This time, however, the bar is high for a substantial squeeze, suggesting macro headwinds will ultimately weigh on gold.”

“A break below $1,745/oz by July would establish a sustained downtrend in the yellow metal.”

“While official central bank holdings do not show a sustained trend of purchases, this cohort appears most likely to have been on the bid in recent weeks. However, Shanghai length is vulnerable following Chinese New Year, while a CTA positioning squeeze is also unlikely to lend further support given the bar for a buying program is elevated.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD jumps to 0.7050, fresh one-month top after hot Australian CPI

AUD/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day on Wednesday, rising to a fresh high since September 23 during the Asian session. A hot Australian CPI print reaffirmed bets for an imminent RBA rate hike in November and boosted the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Dollar pauses after a three-day rally to a near two-week high ahead of the crucial FOMC rate decision, lending additional support to the currency pair.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold comes under pressure, still above $4,000 ahead of FOMC

Gold now gives away part of its recent two-day rebound, although a breach below the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce remains elusive for now. Rising crude oil prices keep the precious metal under pressure ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision later on Wednesday.

Zcash's bullish momentum mounts on steady ETF inflows, retail confidence

Zcash extends steady recovery above $1,300 on Wednesday, approaching a key resistance near $1,373. Grayscale’s ZEC-focused Exchange-Traded Fund sees persistent buying pressure, with six straight days of inflows, including more than $3 million on Tuesday.

Markets hold their breath as Fed sets to keep rates steady

Markets enter Fed day with a unified message: the rate hold is fully priced in, but the direction of the next several weeks is still unknown. Kevin Warsh’s speech later today will determine whether markets extend the current risk‑on drift or reverse sharply into defensive positioning.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.