Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD surpasses $2,000 firmly as US debt talks and Fed policy come into limelight

Gold price has extended its solid recovery above $2,000.00 amid US debt-ceiling talks.
A higher debt-ceiling proposal would force credit rating agencies to downgrade US’ long-term credit rating.
US annualized GDP data is expected to slow down to 2.0% from the prior pace of 2.6%.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) has stretched its recovery strongly above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00 in the Asian session. The precious metal is getting acceptance above $2,000.00 as investors are anticipating a neutral stance on interest rate guidance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its May monetary policy meeting after a consecutive 25 basis point (bp) interest rate hike.

Apart from that, the catalyst that is strengthening the gold price is the debt ceiling talks. Political drama for the US debt ceiling is escalating for raising it. A higher debt-ceiling proposal would force credit rating agencies to downgrade United States’ long-term credit rating, which could have a negative impact on the US Dollar and US equities. This is why the appeal for the Gold is gaining strength.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has witnessed some buying interest after a gradual correction to near 101.35. Investors are expecting sheer volatility in the USD Index ahead of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q1) data. As per the consensus, annualized GDP data is expected to slow down to 2.0% from the prior pace of 2.6%.

On Wednesday, weak core capital goods orders due to higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed) deepened fears of an economic slowdown. Firms have postponed their expansion plans due to higher interest obligations. This might force Fed chair Jerome Powell to consider neutral guidance.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price is auctioning in a neutral triangle pattern, which indicates a sheer decline in volatility. The upward-sloping trendline plotted from March 22 low at $1,934.34 is providing cushion while the upside is capped from the trendline placed from April 17 high at $2,012.92.

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,994.17 is overlapping the Gold price, indicating a consolidation.

Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00, conveying that the release of the US GDP might conclude the lackluster performance.

Gold two-hour chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1998.77
Today Daily Change	9.77
Today Daily Change %	0.49
Today daily open	1989

Trends
Daily SMA20	1998.04
Daily SMA50	1927.93
Daily SMA100	1893.5
Daily SMA200	1804.6

Levels
Previous Daily High	2009.41
Previous Daily Low	1983.4
Previous Weekly High	2015.13
Previous Weekly Low	1969.26
Previous Monthly High	2009.88
Previous Monthly Low	1809.46
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1993.34
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1999.47
Daily Pivot Point S1	1978.46
Daily Pivot Point S2	1967.93
Daily Pivot Point S3	1952.45
Daily Pivot Point R1	2004.47
Daily Pivot Point R2	2019.95
Daily Pivot Point R3	2030.48

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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