Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreat appears elusive beyond $2,025 – Confluence Detector
- Gold price eases from record top, mildly offered of late, but stays beyond $2,025 key level.
- Fed signals for policy pivot propel XAU/USD price while banking woes trim bullish momentum strength.
- Gold buyers need further acceptance from US NFP to keep the reins.
Gold price (XAU/USD) eases after refreshing the highest level on record as bulls take a breather ahead of the key European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting on early Thursday, as well as await Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
That said, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) indirect efforts of turning down the hawks, despite announcing a 0.25% rate hike, appear the major force behind the Gold Price upside. On the same line could be the US Dollar’s downtrend amid fears that banking woes and debt ceiling expiration may push back the rate hike concerns, especially when the policymakers omitted to mention of the need for further rate increases. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) optimism for Asia, the leading XAU/USD consumer, adds strength to the Gold price upside.
On the other hand, China’s softer PMIs and likely challenges for the ECB’s rate hike, which in turn can help the US Dollar, seemed to have prodded the XAU/USD buyers after it refreshed the all-time high with the $2,080 figure.
Moving on, ECB’s action will be the key recent statistics from the bloc and Bank Lending Survey (BLS) challenge the heavy rate lifts. Following that, the monthly prints of the US jobs report for April will be important to watch for clear directions.
Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hit record high on US banking jitters and potential Fed pause
Gold Price: Key levels to watch
As per our Technical Confluence Indicator, Gold price stays well above the $2,025 resistance-turned-support comprising Pivot Point one-week R2 and Fibonacci 23.6% on one month. The same joins the softer US Dollar to keep the XAU/USD bulls hopeful.
Even if the Gold price breaks the $2,025 support, the $2,011 confluence level could act as the last defense of the XAU/USD buyers. The mentioned level encompasses Fibonacci 38.2% on one month.
Following that, the $2,000 may act as an additional check for the Gold sellers before giving them control.
On the flip side, a convergence of Pivot Point one month R1 and one week R3 highlights $2,043 as a short-term key upside hurdle.
Should the Gold price remains firmer past $2,043, the previous monthly high and upper band of the Bollinger on four-hour play can challenge the Gold buyers.
It’s worth noting that the XAU/USD run-up beyond $2,043 may pause at the $2,063 level including Pivot Point one-day R2 and upper band of the Bollinger on hourly play, a break of which could challenge the all-time high surrounding $2,080.
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About Technical Confluences Detector
The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.
Author
Anil Panchal
FXStreet
Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.
