Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD pushes higher, but overbought RSI warns bulls

Gold extends its bullish move, supported by lower US Treasury yields and fading expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike.
XAU/USD maintains a strong bullish technical bias above its key moving averages, although overbought conditions increase the risk of a short-term correction.
Gold bulls target the $4,773 resistance level, while the $4,530-$4,517 area provides key support in case of a pullback.

Ghiles Guezout FXStreet

Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a bullish bias on Monday and trades near its highest levels since mid-May. The precious metal remains supported by fading expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lower US Treasury bond yields, which boost the appeal of non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran sustain demand for safe-haven assets but also support the US Dollar (USD), limiting Gold’s upside potential.

In the daily chart below, XAU/USD trades at $4,647.02, extending its advance well above the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4,379.73 and $4,516.92, respectively, which reinforces a bullish near-term bias. The reclaim of the broken downward trendline currently around $4,389.60 further underpins the constructive tone, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 72.03 shows overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly vulnerable to a corrective pause rather than a trend reversal at this stage.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier near $4,773.00, followed by a higher cap around $4,890.00. On the downside, immediate support emerges from the 200-day SMA at $4,516.92, with the former trend-line region at $4,389.60 and the 100-day SMA at $4,379.73 forming a deeper demand zone ahead of the more distant horizontal floor near $4,003.29.

In the one-hour chart below, XAU/USD trades at $4,649.38, extending its advance firmly above the 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4,492.92 and $4,440.88, respectively, which underpins a clear bullish near-term bias. The pair also sits above the ascending trend-line around $4,641.28, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 68 suggests strong but increasingly stretched upside momentum as price hovers just below the overbought band.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the trendline level around $4,641.28, ahead of the more substantive horizontal floor at $4,530.00. Below that, the 100-period SMA at $4,492.92 and the $4,450.00 horizontal level line up over the 200-period SMA at $4,440.88, forming a deeper demand area that would come into play on a more pronounced correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Ghiles Guezout

FXStreet

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

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