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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD jumps to $1,900 neighbourhood, fresh multi-month top post-US CPI

  • Gold price touches a fresh multi-month high following the release of the US inflation figures.
  • The crucial US CPI report cements bets for smaller Fed rate hikes and boosts the XAU/USD.
  • The risk-on impulse might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets and cap gains for the metal.

Gold price reverses an early North American session dip to the $1,873 area and jumps to a fresh eight-month high following the release of the US consumer inflation figures. The XAU/USD is currently placed just below the $1,900 mark, up over 1.0% for the day, and seems poised to appreciate further.

The US Dollar bounces off a seven-month low in reaction to mostly in-line US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which, in turn, acts as a headwind for the dollar-denominated Gold price. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline US CPI declined 0.1% in December as compared to estimates for a flat reading. The yearly rate, however, matched expectations and decelerated to 6.3% from 7.1% in November. Furthermore, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, edge up by 0.3% in December and fell to 5.7% on yearly basis from 6.0% in November.

The mixed data, meanwhile, reaffirms market expectations for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note languishes near a multi-week low amid rising bets for smaller Fed rate hikes going further. This, in turn, caps the attempted USD recovery and provides a fresh lift to the non-yielding Gold price. That said, a generally positive tone around the equity markets might turn out to be the only factor capping gains for the safe-haven XAU/USD.

Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop remains tilted firmly in favour of bullish traders. The positive outlook is reinforced by the emergence of some dip-buying in the last hour. This, in turn, supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the Gold price, though it will be prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the $1,900 mark before placing fresh bullish bets.

Technical levels to watch

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price1887.21
Today Daily Change10.69
Today Daily Change %0.57
Today daily open1876.52
 
Trends
Daily SMA201823.72
Daily SMA501782.87
Daily SMA1001730.86
Daily SMA2001777.31
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1886.67
Previous Daily Low1867.13
Previous Weekly High1869.91
Previous Weekly Low1823.76
Previous Monthly High1833.38
Previous Monthly Low1765.89
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1874.59
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1879.21
Daily Pivot Point S11866.88
Daily Pivot Point S21857.23
Daily Pivot Point S31847.34
Daily Pivot Point R11886.42
Daily Pivot Point R21896.31
Daily Pivot Point R31905.96

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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