Gold: Precious metals lead lost-decade playbook – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities’ Izidor Flajsman highlights that during historical US equity ‘lost decades’, Precious Metals, especially Gold, have delivered strong real returns while broad Commodities were more mixed. Gold outperformed in both valuation-driven and inflation-shock regimes and TD’s Commodities team now projects Gold at $5100/oz by Q1 2027, implying more than 25% upside from current spot levels.

Gold outperforms across lost decades

"Precious metals led across 'lost decade' regimes, with gold the standout performer."

"Commodities have been the flip side of equities and duration — dead money in a normal regime, best house on the block in a lost decade."

"The catch: based on the data below, this is a precious metals story, not a "commodities" story."

"Gold is the standout (+7.7% ann.) because it works in both regimes."

"Going forward, interestingly, we expect gold to hit $5100/oz in Q1 2027, which is over 25% higher from the current spot."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold eyes worst week in a month amid hawkish Fed outlook

Gold is extending Thursday’s late rebound from the weekly low of $4,244 into Asia on Friday, but remains below $4,300. The bullion is headed for its worst week in four weeks amid a hawkish US Federal Reserve outlook and deepening global bond rout.

Crypto exchange Bitget hacked for over $350 million

Cryptocurrency exchange Bitget has been hacked for over $351 million after attackers compromised a few of its hot wallets. The hack was first flagged across several onchain tools, which initially noted over $180 million in assets moving from a few of the exchange's wallets to unidentified addresses.

Treasury announces second oversized bond buyback as it tries to put a lid on yields

The Treasury Department will buy back another $6 billion in long-term Treasuries as it continues efforts to tamp down rising yields. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced this second expanded buyback on Wednesday.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.