Gold: Precious metals lead lost-decade playbook – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities’ Izidor Flajsman highlights that during historical US equity ‘lost decades’, Precious Metals, especially Gold, have delivered strong real returns while broad Commodities were more mixed. Gold outperformed in both valuation-driven and inflation-shock regimes and TD’s Commodities team now projects Gold at $5100/oz by Q1 2027, implying more than 25% upside from current spot levels.

Gold outperforms across lost decades

"Precious metals led across 'lost decade' regimes, with gold the standout performer."

"Commodities have been the flip side of equities and duration — dead money in a normal regime, best house on the block in a lost decade."

"The catch: based on the data below, this is a precious metals story, not a "commodities" story."

"Gold is the standout (+7.7% ann.) because it works in both regimes."

"Going forward, interestingly, we expect gold to hit $5100/oz in Q1 2027, which is over 25% higher from the current spot."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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FXStreet Insights Team

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