Gold: Fed expectations cap upside for now – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities strategists note that Precious Metals, particularly Gold, are struggling to gain traction as elevated Fed hike probabilities keep real rates high. CTA's (Commodity Trading Advisors) are running a small net short and scenario analysis points to a relatively tight trading band. A fragile Iran deal backdrop and firm energy prices mean Gold is not yet in a clear recovery phase.

CTA shorts and constrained trading range

"Precious metals still can't catch a bid. Despite headlines driving oil lower, rates and probabilities of Fed hikes remain elevated, limiting the upside for gold."

"For now CTAs remain comfortable at a small net-short, with our pricing simulations highlighting a tight range under most scenarios."

"If potential deal talk keeps oil under wraps in the near-term, the worst case scenario of testing the next selling triggers just below the key $4000/oz level may be avoided for now."

"However, the still fragile deal framework and elevated energy pricing suggest precious metals are not fully out of the woods just yet."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD keeps range near mid-0.7100s as USD bulls await US CPI

AUD/USD steadies near mid-0.7100s in the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's sharp decline to an over one-week low. The August PPI report reaffirmed Fed rate-hike bets and boosted the US Dollar on Thursday, which weighed heavily on the pair. However, hawkish RBA expectations limited losses for the Aussie as USD bulls now await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00; looks to US CPI

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00 in the Asian session on Friday after hot Japanese PPI data bolster a more hawkish BoJ repricing and provide fresh impetus to the Japanese Yen. However, the downside appears capped as the US Dollar preserves overnight gains ahead of the latest US consumer inflation data.

Gold: Will US CPI inflation revive the uptrend?

Gold is hanging close to one-week lows near $4,310 early Friday, nursing heavy losses after the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data release and the recent upsurge in Oil prices. Gold is looking to recover a part of the previous heavy losses as traders resort to repositioning ahead of the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report.

Ethereum holds above $2,400 as PPI data strengthens rate hike expectations

Ethereum (ETH) is down 0.7% on Thursday as the second-largest cryptocurrency looks to recover from earlier pressure following the release of stronger US inflation data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.4% in August, matching market expectations after a revised 0.1% increase in July, according to the US Labor Department.

Dollar comeback case 'a decent one' – September Fed hike 'back in play'

The dollar was left nursing heavy losses against most of its major peers after last month’s Treasury buyback wobble. Notwithstanding this, we think that the case for a near-term bounce in the greenback is a decent one. Warsh's hawkish pivot at Jackson Hole, followed by what was a blowout US payrolls report for August, has put a September rate hike from the Fed back in play.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.