Global outlook: IMF set to cut growth forecasts – BBH

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad points to upcoming IMF publications as key for assessing global risks. The World Economic Outlook is expected to show downgraded growth projections, while the Global Financial Stability Report and Fiscal Monitor will focus on sovereign debt sustainability. BBH warns that an energy shock could evolve into a fiscal shock as higher borrowing costs hit stretched public finances.

IMF reports highlight fiscal vulnerabilities

"The IMF releases its closely watched World Economic Outlook on Tuesday."

"IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva flagged last week that global growth will be downgraded, even under the most hopeful scenario of a swift normalization to the energy shock."

"Georgieva also warned that the world has a fiscal space problem reflecting growing public debt and rising interest payments."

"Indeed, we previously highlighted that a key risk facing financial markets is that the energy shock morphs into a fiscal shock as higher borrowing costs collide with already stretched public finances, while sovereign debt is increasingly held by price-sensitive hedged funds."

"The IMF’s updated Global Financial Stability Report (Tuesday) and Fiscal Monitor (Wednesday) should offer a timely assessment around sovereign debt sustainability."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD flatlines near 0.6965 as less hawkish RBA counters USD weakness

AUD/USD holds steady above a two-week low, trading near 0.6965 in the Asian session on Wednesday as early midterm election results heighten political uncertainty and weigh heavily on the US Dollar. Moreover, reviving safe-haven demand triggers a fresh leg down in US bond yields, offsetting Fed hike bets and exerting additional pressure on the buck. However, a less hawkish RBA caps the Aussie.

USD/JPY declines below 158.00 as USD weakens on midterm election results

USD/JPY comes under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, dropping below 158.00 during the Asian session as the US Dollar slumps to a one-month low amid heightened political uncertainty after early US midterm vote counts. Moreover, the prospect of gridlock in Washington drives safe-haven flows, triggering a fresh leg down in US bond yields and further weighing on the buck.

Gold continues scaling new weekly highs; eyes $4,050 as US sticks to elections-led losses

Gold builds on its strong intraday move up, hitting a series of new weekly tops, and climbing back close to the $4,050 level during the first half of the European session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar. Democrats’ wins in the House and Senate raise the prospect of gridlock in Washington. Moreover, heightened political uncertainty drove investors to safe-haven assets, exerting some downward pressure on US bond yields. This is seen weighing on the Greenback and supporting the precious metal.

Bitcoin tests critical support, Ethereum struggles below resistance, XRP extends losses

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) remain under pressure on Wednesday as bearish momentum continues to weigh on prices. BTC approaches key support around $76,466, and a decisive close below could open the door to deeper losses. Meanwhile, ETH struggles below key resistance while XRP faces rejection at the upper trendline of a falling channel pattern, all hinting at deeper losses.

ADP Employment Report expected to show slower job growth in October

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute is due to release October’s private-sector employment report on Wednesday. The market consensus anticipates a moderate slowdown in job creation, with the ADP Employment Change expected to show 69K new private jobs in October, down from 90K in September.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.