GBP/USD softens ahead of data-heavy week

GBP/USD eased lower on Monday, falling 0.4% to begin the trading week.
Greenback bidding rebounds after last week’s sharp downside.
A quiet start to the week gives way to plenty of meaningful releases and key policy statements.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

GBP/USD saw a softer start to the new trading week, easing back around four-tenths of one percent through the opening market sessions. The US Dollar (USD) pared some of last week’s overall losses, trimming near-term gains for the Pound Sterling (GBP) on Monday.

The week starts on a quiet note, with little of note on the data docket. That all changes on Wednesday, with a fresh salvo of key economic data from the United Kingdom (UK) and the start of this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Kansas.

UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures for July will drop on Wednesday, followed by Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity survey results due for both the UK and the US on Thursday. Friday will also bring another update to UK Retail Sales figures, but the key event this week will be this year’s Jackson Hole central banking mega-event. Jackson Hole will kick off on Thursday, but the key event will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s presentation at the symposium on Friday.

US inflation data sparked some fresh concerns among global markets last week, however, overall investor sentiment is still pricing in a Fed rate cut on September 17. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in over 80% odds of at least a quarter-point rate cut next month, with nearly 90% odds of a follow-up cut in December.

GBP/USD price forecast

Monday’s fresh bearish momentum has put GBP/USD on pace for a fresh challenge of technical support at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3450. However, Cable is still firmly entrenched deep in bull country, with the pair trading well north of the 200-day EMA near 1.3170.

GBP/USD daily chart

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

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