GBP/USD slips as strong US jobs data offsets upbeat risk mood
- Lower US jobless claims reinforced the Dollar and capped Sterling gains.
- UK GDP beat forecasts, but failed to outweigh stronger US data.
- Ceasefire optimism helped risk sentiment, though fundamentals still pressured Sterling.
The GBP/USD pair drops by 0.17% on Thursday as US jobs data outshone the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released during the European session. Meanwhile, expectations for a peace deal between the US and Iran keep the market mood upbeat. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3534 after reaching a two-month high of 1.3594 earlier in the day.
Sterling eases despite solid UK GDP and fresh ceasefire hopes
Initial Jobless Claims in the US dipped from 218K to 207K in the week ending April 11, below forecasts for a 215K print. Although the print is good, the latest employment report and JOLTS data hint that the economy is in a low-hiring, low-firing mode. The Federal Reserve (Fed) reported that Industrial Production is slowing down, with the print dropping from 0.7% to -0.5% MoM in March. Motor vehicles, parts, and utilities fell the most, indicating that the economy is decelerating.
Speeches by Federal Reserve officials confirm the central bank’s policy stance. NY Fed John Williams said that Iran’s war is driving up prices and expects a jump in headline inflation. Regarding the police stance, he said it’s well-positioned.
Echoing some of his comments but remaining uber-dovish, Governor Stephen Miran, who said that he expects three cuts instead of four, given "less favorable" inflation developments.
In the UK, the economy rose by 0.5% MoM in February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), above estimates of a 0.1% expansion.
Fundamentally speaking, there is no reason for Sterling’s strength. The fact that the UK is a net importer of energy weighed on the Pound, which fell 1.9% in March amid the eruption of the Middle East conflict, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, hopes for a peace deal triggered a U-turn in GBP/USD, which reclaimed the 1.3500 mark.
Another reason for the recent GBP/USD strength is that expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) would hike rates twice in 2026 are rising,
Back to geopolitics, US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, beginning on Thursday at 5:00 PM EDT. Continuing with the conflict in the Middle East, a Pakistani mediator was in Tehran, while the White House is optimistic about reaching a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3539. The pair holds above the cluster of simple moving averages (50-, 100- and 200-day SMA) gathered around 1.3427, keeping the near-term bias constructive while it rides an upward support trend line traced from 1.3035 and last validated near 1.3492. The fact that recent closes previously capped by the descending resistance trend line are now trading well above its last reaction point around 1.3436 suggests that prior overhead supply has turned into a broader demand zone beneath spot.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent trend-line-related area around 1.3490–1.3492, where the rising dynamic floor converges with prior reaction lows. A deeper pullback would expose the dense support band defined by the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered near 1.3427, which is likely to attract dip-buying interest while price holds above it; only a sustained break below this moving-average base would hint at a more pronounced corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on April 16 at 16:49 to say that the previous Initial Jobless Claims print was 218K, not 219K.)
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.94% | -1.09% | -0.29% | -1.16% | -2.49% | -1.65% | -0.92% | |
| EUR | 0.94% | -0.16% | 0.60% | -0.22% | -1.51% | -0.72% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | 1.09% | 0.16% | 0.69% | -0.04% | -1.36% | -0.56% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.29% | -0.60% | -0.69% | -0.86% | -2.11% | -1.26% | -0.64% | |
| CAD | 1.16% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.86% | -1.18% | -0.41% | 0.24% | |
| AUD | 2.49% | 1.51% | 1.36% | 2.11% | 1.18% | 0.85% | 1.49% | |
| NZD | 1.65% | 0.72% | 0.56% | 1.26% | 0.41% | -0.85% | 0.74% | |
| CHF | 0.92% | -0.02% | -0.18% | 0.64% | -0.24% | -1.49% | -0.74% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
