GBP/USD Price Forecast: Buyers retain control above 200-day SMA

GBP/USD recovers from intraday lows as Middle East tensions continue to drive market volatility.
The US Dollar remains supported after Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace response.
Technically, GBP/USD maintains a mildly bullish bias while holding above the 200-day SMA.

Vishal Chaturvedi FXStreet

GBP/USD recovers some ground after opening the week with a bearish gap as geopolitical headlines surrounding the Middle East continue to stir volatility across financial markets. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3614 after bouncing from an intraday low near 1.3553, though it remains down around 0.14% on the day.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.00 after hitting an intraday high near 98.15. The US Dollar’s (USD) downside remains limited as hopes for a near-term resolution to the US-Iran war faded after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to a US-backed proposal aimed at ending the conflict, calling it “totally unacceptable” in a post on Truth Social.

Rising political uncertainty in the United Kingdom could also act as a near-term headwind for the British Pound (GBP) following the Labour Party’s heavy losses in the recent local elections. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now facing a growing leadership challenge within his party.

Traders are now bracing for a busy slate of economic data releases that could drive fresh volatility in GBP/USD. In the United States, attention will turn to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Wednesday. In the United Kingdom, investors will closely watch Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures along with Industrial and Manufacturing Production data scheduled for release on Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

On the daily chart, GBP/USD retains a mildly bullish bias as price holds above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3424 and the nearby horizontal support at 1.3500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59 suggests positive but not overextended momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in shallow positive territory, hinting that upside pressure is still present but not accelerating.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the horizontal barrier near 1.3650, where a clear break would open the way for a more convincing continuation of the advance. On the downside, immediate support is seen first at 1.3500, with the 200-day SMA at 1.3424 providing a deeper layer of structural demand should a corrective pullback unfold.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

FXStreet

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

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