- GBP/USD attracts some buyers to around 1.3350 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The UK hopes to strike a deal with Trump after he imposed 10% tariffs on most imports of British goods to the US.
- Fed's Powell said the US central bank remains in wait-and-see mode.
The GBP/USD pair extends its upside to near 1.3350 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uptick of the major pair is bolstered by the softer US Dollar (USD) broadly as traders become increasingly confident that the economic policies of US President Donald Trump will lead the economy to a recession.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Donald Trump discussed "ongoing and productive" trade talks in their first call since Trump imposed tariffs on UK goods. According to a Downing Street official, Starmer emphasized his commitment to "free and open trade and the importance of protecting the national interest."
Starmer is seeking to reach an agreement with the US after Trump announced 10% tariffs on UK goods and a 25% rate on imports of automobiles, steel, and aluminum. Meanwhile, the optimism surrounding the US-UK trade talks continues to underpin the GBP against the Greenback in the near term.
Nonetheless, the hawkish remarks from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could lift the USD and cap the upside for the major pair. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that escalating tariffs could fuel inflation while undermining growth, complicating the path for interest rate decisions. Powell noted, “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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