GBP/USD: Data-heavy week with political risks – Scotiabank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Pound (GBP) is steady versus the US Dollar (USD) after recovering from an initial reaction to renewed US–Iran tensions. A busy United Kingdom (UK) data calendar includes jobs, Consumer Price Index (CPI) , Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and retail sales, while markets reassess risks around PM Starmer and fiscal prudence. Technically, GBP/USD is seen range-bound between 1.3480 and 1.3580 with support in the mid-to-lower 1.34s.

Stable pound within defined range

"The pound is also steady and entering Monday’s NA session unchanged vs. the USD, and also recovery from a short-lived knee-jerk open reaction to the latest resurgence in tensions between the US and Iran."

"Domestic political developments are also staging a comeback as market participants assess the possibility of PM Starmer resigning and consider the implications for UK fiscal prudence."

"In terms of the BoE, comments from policymakers have offered very little in terms of guidance, framing a wide range of possible rate paths."

"GBP/USD short-term technicals: Bullish/neutral – as with EUR, the GBP’s RSI has also flattened out in modestly bullish territory with a pair of offsetting doji candles that also hints to a mixed and conflicted chart."

"We look to potential support in the mid/ lower-1.34s around the clustered 50 and 200 day MA’s and look to a near-term range bound between 1.3480 and 1.3580."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7150 barrier nine-day EMA

AUD/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving sideways within the rectangle pattern, suggesting a consolidation as neither the bulls nor the bears have enough momentum to take control of the market.

USD/JPY trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

Gold puts its 200-day SMA to the test near $4,420

Gold keeps the bullish stance in place in the latter part of Thursday’s session, although a convincing break above the key $4,500 mark per troy ounce still remains elusive. The precious metal’s advance comes amid the resurgence of some selling interest around the Greenback, improving risk sentiment, and declining US Treasury yields across the board.

Bitcoin’s massive storm is back: Why the sell-off is far from over

Bitcoin price action over the last few weeks has felt less like a normal, healthy correction and more like a slow grinding crash that continues to wreak havoc on holdings and trading accounts. And everything suggests that the dramatic crash isn’t over.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.