|

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Buyers defend 216.50 as bullish trend continues

  • GBP/JPY trades in a narrow range as fragile market sentiment keeps traders cautious.
  • Traders avoid chasing GBP/JPY higher as the risk of intervention by Tokyo remains elevated.
  • Firm momentum and a positive MACD reinforce the cross’s bullish technical structure.

GBP/JPY trades in a narrow range on Tuesday as market sentiment remains fragile amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which are driving Oil prices higher once again. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 217.10 as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains broadly weak.

Higher Oil prices are weighing on the Yen as Japan relies heavily on imported energy. At the same time, the inflationary impact of rising energy costs is reinforcing expectations that major central banks, including the Bank of England (BoE), may need to raise interest rates.

The BoJ remains on a tightening path but continues to lag behind its global peers, with wide interest rate gaps giving the British Pound (GBP) an advantage over the Yen and keeping GBP/JPY tilted to the upside.

Still, traders remain cautious about chasing GBP/JPY higher amid the growing risk of intervention by Japanese authorities as USD/JPY hovers near 40-year highs above 160.

Technical analysis: 4-hour chart

On the four-hour chart, GBP/JPY is retesting immediate resistance at the Bollinger Bands’ middle band near 217.09 while holding comfortably above the lower band at 216.41.

Momentum is moderating from recent overbought extremes, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 54, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays slightly negative, hinting at a slower but still constructive upside phase rather than a strongly impulsive rally.

On the upside, a clear break above the Bollinger Bands’ middle band would expose the upper band at 217.77. On the downside, initial support lies at the lower band at 216.41. A deeper pullback could expose the horizontal support levels at 215.50, 214.50, 213.50 and 212.50.

Technical analysis: Daily chart

On the daily chart, GBP/JPY maintains a bullish structure, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. The cross trades above the Bollinger Bands’ middle band at 215.19 and holds above the nearby horizontal support at 216.50, keeping the broader upside bias intact.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61, reflecting firm positive momentum without entering overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, suggesting that buyers retain control.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band near 218.43, where gains could face some resistance. On the downside, initial support lies at 216.50, followed by the middle Bollinger Band at 215.19. A break below these levels could expose the lower Bollinger Band at 211.94, ahead of the horizontal support at 210.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.21%-0.28%-0.16%-0.34%-0.36%-0.88%-0.40%
EUR0.21%-0.07%0.06%-0.13%-0.15%-0.66%-0.18%
GBP0.28%0.07%0.13%-0.05%-0.06%-0.59%-0.12%
JPY0.16%-0.06%-0.13%-0.18%-0.22%-0.74%-0.27%
CAD0.34%0.13%0.05%0.18%-0.04%-0.54%-0.07%
AUD0.36%0.15%0.06%0.22%0.04%-0.52%-0.04%
NZD0.88%0.66%0.59%0.74%0.54%0.52%0.48%
CHF0.40%0.18%0.12%0.27%0.07%0.04%-0.48%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

More from Vishal Chaturvedi
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold remains vulnerable below $4,200 on Fed hike bets

Gold is under mild selling pressure on Monday, trading at around $4,170. The US Dollar advances modestly in thin trading, supported by bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates at least one more time before year-end.

Bitcoin struggles as ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty weigh

Bitcoin hovers around $83,600 on Monday after a 3.1% correction last week. US-listed spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $681.10 million last week, snapping the three-week inflow streak. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed signals keep investors cautious.

The week ahead: A critical week as earnings and CPI test market

The Oil price is relatively stable this morning, and US and European stock markets are poised to open higher, as risk sentiment shrugs off an escalation in the Middle East and concerns about rising bond yields.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?
Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?