Forex Today: US Dollar retreats as mood improves on falling Oil prices
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 10:
The sharp decline seen in crude Oil prices helped the market mood improve in the second half of the day on Monday and made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to preserve its strength. In the European morning on Tuesday, the USD Index stays below 99.00 and continues to edge lower. The US economic calendar will feature Existing Home Sales data for February and the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will publish the Employment Change 4-week Average.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.96% | -1.01% | -0.50% | -0.26% | -1.88% | -1.28% | -0.48% | |
| EUR | 0.96% | -0.08% | 0.46% | 0.69% | -0.95% | -0.35% | 0.46% | |
| GBP | 1.01% | 0.08% | 0.55% | 0.76% | -0.88% | -0.27% | 0.53% | |
| JPY | 0.50% | -0.46% | -0.55% | 0.26% | -1.37% | -0.76% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.26% | -0.69% | -0.76% | -0.26% | -1.64% | -1.02% | -0.23% | |
| AUD | 1.88% | 0.95% | 0.88% | 1.37% | 1.64% | 0.62% | 1.42% | |
| NZD | 1.28% | 0.35% | 0.27% | 0.76% | 1.02% | -0.62% | 0.80% | |
| CHF | 0.48% | -0.46% | -0.53% | -0.03% | 0.23% | -1.42% | -0.80% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Energy Ministers from G7 members will reportedly hold a virtual meeting on Tuesday to discuss a possible release of Oil reserves to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war. After hitting its highest level since June 2022 above $110 at the weekly opening, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) turned south and closed deep in negative territory on Monday. Early Tuesday, WTI corrects higher but remains well below $90.
Late Monday, US President Donald Trump hinted that the operations against Iran could end soon, saying that "the war is very complete, pretty much." Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded and said that Tehran will determine when the war ends, not the US, and warned that they could block regional oil exports if the US and Israeli attacks continue.
Wall Street's main indexes closed in positive territory on Monday and US stock index futures were last seen rising between 0.2% and 0.3%, reflecting a risk-positive market atmosphere.
After falling toward $5,000 early Monday, Gold staged a rebound and erased a large portion of its daily losses. XAU/USD gains traction in the European morning on Tuesday and climbs toward $5,200.
EUR/USD made a sharp U-turn following the bearish action seen in the first half of the day and registered marginal gains on Monday. The pair holds its ground to start the European session and trades at around 1.1650.
The data from China showed earlier in the day that Exports surged by 21.8% on a yearly basis in February and Imports increased by 19.8%. After posting strong gains on Monday, AUD/USD continues to push higher and trades above 0.7100. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Tuesday that volatility in Oil prices and the Middle East is a genuine challenge for central banks, adding that the policy response depends on the size and persistence of the price shock, which is very uncertain.
GBP/USD benefits from improving risk mood and trades at a fresh 10-day high above 1.3470 early Tuesday.
USD/JPY stays under modest bearish pressure and trades below 157.50 after posting small losses on Monday.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
