Forecasting the upcoming week: US Dollar faces labor market test as NFP takes center stage
The upcoming week will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors look ahead to key United States (US) labor market data, ISM Manufacturing figures, Eurozone inflation releases, and central bank commentary from the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell near the 101.30 level on Friday amid profit-taking ahead of the end of the quarter. Investors' main focus will be on JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Initial Jobless Claims, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. A stronger labor market print could support expectations that the Fed may keep policy restrictive for longer, while softer employment data may weigh on the Greenback.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.07% | 0.23% | 0.19% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.09% | 0.37% | 0.31% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.01% | 0.30% | 0.25% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.02% | 0.27% | 0.22% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.09% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.30% | 0.23% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.37% | -0.30% | -0.27% | -0.30% | -0.04% | -0.30% | |
| NZD | -0.19% | -0.31% | -0.25% | -0.22% | -0.23% | 0.04% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | -0.09% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.30% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD trades in the green near 1.1390 amid a weaker US Dollar (USD). Next week will be busy on the Eurozone calendar, with preliminary inflation data, business sentiment, Retail Sales, Unemployment, and final PMI readings due throughout the week. The Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain a key driver for ECB expectations, especially as officials continue to debate whether inflation is cooling fast enough. Germany and broader Eurozone PMIs will also be watched for signs of weakness in manufacturing and services activity.
GBP/USD trades muted near the 1.3200 level as the British Pound fails to gain traction against a losing Greenback. The pair will focus on the United Kingdom’s (UK) final Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, alongside comments from BoE officials. The BoE remains under pressure to balance sticky inflation risks with signs of slower economic momentum, meaning any stronger-than-expected growth figures could offer support to the Pound Sterling.
USD/JPY trades lower near 161.70 as USD loses its footing. The pair will be driven next week by Japan’s Retail Trade, Unemployment Rate, and the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, the latter of which will be especially important for the Yen as investors assess whether Japan’s corporate sector remains strong enough to support the Bank of Japan’s tightening bias.
AUD/USD loses ground near 0.6890 on Friday, even as USD continues to weaken. The pair will have a busy week with RBA Governor Bullock’s speech, the RBA Meeting Minutes, Building Permits, Trade Balance, and Australian PMI data in focus. China’s NBS and RatingDog PMI figures will also be important for the Aussie, given Australia’s strong trade links with China.
Gold trades slightly higher near $4,070 and will remain sensitive to US labor market data and Fed expectations. A stronger US jobs report could lift Treasury yields and pressure the precious metal, while softer employment figures may support Gold by increasing expectations of a less restrictive path from the Fed.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil fell below $70 per barrel and is trading at $69.10 after Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement. The black gold will remain focused on global demand signals, especially China’s PMI data and US macro releases. Stronger activity figures could support crude prices, while signs of slower demand may limit upside.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Sunday, June 28
- RBA Governor Bullock
Monday, June 29
- BoE’s Pill
- ECB President Lagarde
Tuesday, June 30
- ECB’s Vujčić
- ECB’s Elderson
- ECB’s Schnabel
- BoE’s Breeden
- ECB’s Cipollone
- ECB’s Lane
Wednesday, July 1
- ECB’s Vujčić
- ECB’s Cipollone
- ECB’s Lane
- Fed Chair Warsh
- ECB President Lagarde
- BoE Governor Bailey
Thursday, July 2
- ECB’s Elderson
- ECB’s Cipollone
Friday, July 3
- ECB President Lagarde
- ECB’s Nagel
- BoE Governor Bailey
Central bank meetings and policy decisions
No major interest rate decisions are scheduled for the week from the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ or RBA. However, the RBA Meeting Minutes will be closely watched on Tuesday for fresh clues on the central bank’s policy outlook, especially after recent concerns around inflation, growth, and the labor market.
Author
Agustin Wazne
FXStreet
Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.
