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Fed's Kugler: Still expect increase in prices and slowdown in the economy

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said that if tariffs prove to be long-lasting, she would focus on how global supply chains are rearranged in response, while she acknowledged that the recent reduction in US-China tariffs was clearly an improvement in bilateral trade relations, though tariff levels remained relatively high.

Key Quotes

  • If tariffs long lasting, the one issue I would be looking to is how supply chains get rearranged in the rest of the world.
  • US/China tariff reduction obviously an improvement as far as trade between countries go, still pretty high.
  • Still expect increase in prices and slowdown in economy though not to same rate as before.
  • My basic outlook may have changed in terms of extent to which we need to use our tools, but not direction.
  • Extent of uncertainty may have gone down a bit, extent of supply shock.
  • I am one of those who believes there could be some permanency from price increases related to tariffs.
  • Given really tight labour market post-pandemic, many businesses reluctant to let people go.

Author

Pablo Piovano

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

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