Fed: First rate cut likely to come only in the third quarter of 2024 – Commerzbank

With regard to the Federal Reserve, economists at Commerzbank still do not expect additional rate hikes.

The Fed has probably reached the rate peak

We continue to believe that the Fed has already reached its interest rate peak.

Despite the fact that the economy is likely to weaken significantly in the medium term, the Fed is unlikely to lower interest rates quickly. After all, it is unlikely to lightly jeopardize the hard-won successes in the fight against inflation but will wait to see whether the decline in inflation is sustainable.

Given that the recession has now been postponed to Q2, we do not expect the first rate cut until the beginning of the third quarter of 2024 and thus somewhat later than before.