Fed dot plot points to one more 25 bps hike in 2023 and 50 bps cut in 2024


According to the Federal Reserve's revised Summary of Projections (SEP), also known as the dot plot, the US central bank remains on track to raise the policy rate by another 25-basis-point this year before lowering it by 50 bps of rate cuts in 2024.

Breaking: Fed holds interest rate steady at 5.25%-5.5% as expected.

Key takeaways from the SEP

Fed officials' median view of fed funds rate at end-2025 3.9% (prev 3.4%).

Fed officials' median view of fed funds rate at end-2024 5.1% (prev 4.6%).

Fed officials' median view of fed funds rate at end-2026 2.9%.

Fed officials' median view of fed funds rate in longer run 2.5% (prev 2.5%).

Fed projections imply one more 25-basis-point rate hike this year and 50 bps of rate cuts in 2024, versus 100 bps of 2024 cuts in June projections.

Fed policymakers see much higher GDP growth of 2.1% in 2023, a lower unemployment rate and more progress on core inflation than they saw in June.

Fed policymakers see much higher GDP growth of 2.1% in 2023, a lower unemployment rate and more progress on core inflation than they saw in June.

Fed FAQs

What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar?

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD?

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD slides to 1.0650 amid strong USD, dovish ECB commentary

EUR/USD slides to 1.0650 amid strong USD, dovish ECB commentary

EUR/USD is falling further to test 1.0650 after dovish commentary from the ECB policymaker Stournaras weighed on the Euro. Divergent ECB-Fed policy outlooks keep the US Dollar strongly bid ahead of the US sentiment data and Fedspeak. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD extends decline below 1.2500 on sustained USD strength

GBP/USD extends decline below 1.2500 on sustained USD strength

GBP/USD extends losses below 1.2500, struggling even after the January month UK GDP was revised higher to 0.3% while the UK industrial sector showed robust growth. Resurgent US Dollar demand and geopolitical tensions keep the pair undermined. 

GBP/USD News

Gold price taps on $2,400 for the first time on record

Gold price taps on $2,400 for the first time on record

Gold price tests $2,400 for the first time on record, scaling new lifetime highs amid persistent geopolitical tensions. The upsurge seems unaffected by reduced Fed rate cut bets and bullish USD. Extremely overbought conditions might prompt some profit-taking around the metal.

 

Gold News

Robert Kiyosaki steers clear from ETFs, opts for holding Bitcoin directly instead

Robert Kiyosaki steers clear from ETFs, opts for holding Bitcoin directly instead

Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki says he will not buy Bitcoin ETFs. Kiyosaki stated his dislike for Wall Street’s financial products and preferred packaging his own. 

Read more

US banks in focus, as earnings season gets underway

US banks in focus, as earnings season gets underway

Today sees the big banks kick off earnings season in the US, with JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, Citigroup, and State Street all reporting before the bell.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures