Euro: Upside bias capped by resistance against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD failed to extend gains after spiking to 1.1472 and is now expected to consolidate between 1.1410 and 1.1455 intraday. Over the coming one to three weeks, the bias is tilted higher, but strong resistance is seen at 1.1470 and 1.1500, with support around 1.1370 limiting downside.

Consolidation with mild upside tilt

"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, EUR fell to a low of 1.1361. When EUR was at 1.1380 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that EUR “could test and potentially break below 1.1360.” Our view was incorrect, as EUR did not break below 1.1360 (low was 1.1373). Instead, during the NY session, EUR surged, reaching a high of 1.1472 before retreating quickly to close at 1.1430 (+0.47%). The brief rise did not lead to a clear increase in upward momentum, and instead of continuing to advance, EUR is more likely to range-trade today, with the range expected to be between 1.1410 and 1.1455."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from Monday (29 Jun, spot at 1.1385), when we highlighted that the recent “weakness in EUR has stabilised.” We also highlighted that EUR “is likely to trade in a range between 1.1335 and 1.1470.” Yesterday, EUR soared and rose slightly above 1.1470, printing a high of 1.1472. Upward momentum is increasing, but not sufficiently to indicate a sustained advance. That said, the bias is tilted to the upside, but 1.1470 is expected to continue to offer resistance. Looking ahead, even if EUR were to break above 1.1470, the 1.1500 level is expected to offer firm resistance as well. On the downside, a breach of 1.1370 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the current mild upside bias has faded."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)