Euro trades flat despite soft European inflation

EUR/USD treads water despite earlier US Dollar weakness supporting the pair.
Softer German and French inflation data may reduce pressure on the ECB to maintain an aggressively restrictive stance.
Trump’s warning that the Iran ceasefire is “over” is lifting geopolitical uncertainty and limiting the Euro’s gains.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

EUR/USD trades in a muted fashion near the 1.1430 area on Friday, as a weaker US Dollar (USD) helps the pair hold onto modest Thursday gains. That was true even after inflation data from Germany and France showed limited price pressure.

Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.3% MoM in June, while the annual rate remained unchanged at 2.3%. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) declined 0.2% MoM and rose 2.4% YoY. In France, the EU-harmonized CPI fell 0.3% on the month and increased 2.0% from a year earlier.

The readings suggest that inflation in two of the Eurozone’s largest economies remains relatively contained. This could reduce the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain an aggressively restrictive policy stance, limiting the Euro’s upside.

Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty remains in focus. United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Iran had requested further negotiations and that Washington had agreed to continue talks. However, Trump also warned that the ceasefire was “over,” raising concerns that hostilities could intensify despite ongoing diplomatic contact.

Renewed tensions between the US and Iran may support safe-haven demand for the Greenback and keep EUR/USD gains limited. Still, the pair holds onto meager gains from Wednesday and Thursday as broader US Dollar weakness offsets the impact of softer European inflation data.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1433, holding above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1425 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1415, which provide near-term trend support but leave the pair capped by a dense band of overhead levels. Price is already testing the lower edge of this cap, with nearby horizontal resistances at 1.1442, 1.1450 and 1.1461 limiting upside attempts, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 hints at steady but not aggressive bullish momentum, reinforcing a mildly capped tone as long as these barriers remain intact.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the horizontal floor at 1.1431, followed by the 20-period SMA at 1.1425 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1415, which together form a compact demand zone that would need to give way to signal a deeper pullback. On the topside, immediate resistance comes first at 1.1442, ahead of 1.1450 and then 1.1461, and only a sustained break above this ascending cluster would open the door for a more constructive recovery in the pair.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

GBP/USD remains offered; bears target 1.3600

GBP/USD now leaves behind part of its recent recovery and revisits the low 1.3600s at the beginning of the week. Indeed, Cable trades with a mild downward bias amid decent gains in the Greenback as investors remain wary of upcoming US data releases and the Jackson Hole event.

EUR/USD remains sidelined above 1.1650

EUR/USD trades on the defensive following the closing bell on Wall Street on Monday, hovering around the 1.1660 region and adding to Friday’s small decline. The pair’s pullback comes in response to an acceptable rebound in the US Dollar in a context of generalised caution ahead of key US data releases and Chair Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole.

Gold poised to extend its bullish run

Gold surrenders part of its initial advance, although it keeps its bullish pace well and sound above the $4,600 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The precious metal’s move higher comes despite slight gains in the US Dollar and a modest pullback in US Treasury yields across the curve.

XRP surged 72%, but is the rally really about XRP?

Ripple (XRP) surged more than 72% in less than a week, its strongest rally since July 2025, as cryptocurrency prices broadly broke out. But the move has a problem: it may have little to do with XRP itself. The token's near-term rally appears to have been driven largely by a broader liquidity shift after the US Treasury expanded long-end bond buybacks, pulling yields lower and lifting risk assets.

Convulsion in credit markets

The United States government just posted a $432.3 billion deficit for July, the largest monthly shortfall since March of 2021. That single burst of red ink pushed the yeartodate deficit to $1.8 trillion, with two months still remaining in fiscal 2026. At this pace, Washington will soon wax nostalgic for the “good old days” when annual deficits were only $2 trillion.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.