Euro: Technical break points to 1.160 test versus US Dollar – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING's Francesco Pesole highlights a significant technical break in EUR/USD below 1.170, opening scope for a test of 1.160 in coming days. Pesole stresses that widening EUR:USD two-year swap differentials back towards pre-war levels have removed a key source of Euro (EUR) resilience versus the US Dollar (USD), while political risk is adding a premium to EUR/GBP with upside risks for the cross.

Rate gap widens as support fades

"We saw a pretty significant technical break in EUR/USD at 1.170, which seemed to rapidly pave the way for a test of 1.160 in the coming days."

"While equities are the main driver of the pair, the moves in short-term rate differentials have been big of late. The EUR:USD two-year swap rate gap has widened 20bp from -80bp to -100bp since the start of this week. That is now close to pre-war levels, essentially removing a key driver (hawkish ECB repricing vs the Fed) of EUR/USD resilience during the conflict."

"Elsewhere in Europe, the pound dropped yesterday as markets priced in a greater chance of Andy Burnham entering the PM leadership challenge. The risk premium (EUR/GBP short-term overvaluation) is now 0.8%. It’s starting to look material, but remember that previous instances of intense political/fiscal concerns saw 2%+ risk premium. Risks remain on the upside for EUR/GBP."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold remains vulnerable below $4,200 on Fed hike bets

Gold is under mild selling pressure on Monday, trading at around $4,170. The US Dollar advances modestly in thin trading, supported by bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates at least one more time before year-end.

Bitcoin struggles as ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty weigh

Bitcoin hovers around $83,600 on Monday after a 3.1% correction last week. US-listed spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $681.10 million last week, snapping the three-week inflow streak. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed signals keep investors cautious.

The week ahead: A critical week as earnings and CPI test market

The Oil price is relatively stable this morning, and US and European stock markets are poised to open higher, as risk sentiment shrugs off an escalation in the Middle East and concerns about rising bond yields.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?