Euro: Growth downgrades and softer outlook – Societe Generale

Societe Generale economists highlights that Eurozone 2026 GDP forecasts have been cut more than United States (US) projections in percentage terms, reinforcing United States (US) outperformance. While the European Central Bank (ECB) appears set on at least one rate hike, he suggests global central banks may rein in tightening as growth slows, with the bank’s end-2026 EUR/USD forecast below Bloomberg consensus.

Eurozone growth trimmed as US outperforms

"Consensus 2026 Eurozone GDP growth forecasts have fallen from 1.2% to 0.8% in the Eurozone since the start of the conflict, and while the US revision, from 2.5% to 2.1% is the same size, US economic out-performance will feel greater at these growth rates."

"The ECB appears committed to at least one rate hike in response to higher inflation, but it won’t take much for central banks around the world to rein I their rate-hiking plans as growth slows."

"Over the same period, the Dollar Index meandered around in a 96-101 range, with EUR/USD trading between 1.14 and 1.21."

"The Bloomberg end-2026 DXY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD consensus forecasts are 96.7, 1.20 and 1.35 ."

"Ours are 98.6, 1.16 and 1.32."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)