Euro: Downside risk capped by 1.1500 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a soft tone on EUR/USD, noting scope for the Euro to edge lower but expecting 1.1500 to hold for now, with 1.1520 as nearby support. Over 1–3 weeks, they maintain a negative bias, looking for a break of 1.1500 to open 1.1445, while a move above 1.1585 would negate the downside scenario.

Soft tone while key floor holds

"24-HOUR VIEW: While we held the view yesterday that EUR “is likely to edge lower,” we pointed out that “based on the prevailing momentum, any decline is unlikely to reach 1.1500.” We also noted that “there is another support level at 1.1520.” Our view did not materialise, as during the early NY session, EUR fluctuated between 1.1530 and 1.1572 before closing little changed at 1.1535 (-0.07%). The underlying tone still appears to be soft, and there is a chance for EUR to edge lower today. However, a breach of 1.1500 is unlikely (1.1520 is still expected to provide support as well). Resistance levels are at 1.1550 and 1.1570."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Tracking our negative EUR view from last week (see annotations in the chart below), we highlighted yesterday (10 Jun, spot at 1.1540) that “while we maintain our negative view, 1.1500 is serving as a firm support, and EUR must break this level before a move to 1.1445 can be expected.” There is no change in our view. On the upside, should EUR break above 1.1585 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.1600), it would indicate that the downside risk has faded."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)