Euro dips against Canadian Dollar following HCOB PMI data release

Eurozone September preliminary figures show modest expansion across services and stable manufacturing performance.
German Services PMI jumped to 52.9, boosting overall composite growth despite a manufacturing drop to 53.8.
Canadian Dollar struggles as WTI oil stays under $90 due to easing Middle East tensions.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/CAD halts its four day-winning streak, trading around 1.6090 during the European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is under pressure as the Euro (EUR) holds losses following the release of the latest HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for Germany and the broader Eurozone.

Across the Eurozone, September's preliminary figures point to moderate expansion, with services sector activity expected to edge up slightly to 51.7 from August’s 51.6, while manufacturing remains steady at 52.7.

In Germany, business activity presented a mixed picture across sectors. Manufacturing output slowed unexpectedly, with the Manufacturing PMI dropping to 53.8, falling short of the estimated 54.5 and the previous reading of 54.3. However, this slowdown was offset by a strong rebound in the service sector, where the PMI jumped to 52.9 from 49.7 in August, signaling a return to expansionary territory above the 50.0 threshold. Buoyed by this service sector momentum, Germany’s overall Composite PMI rose to 53.8, up from 51.8 in the prior month.

Despite the Euro's weakness, losses for the EUR/CAD cross may be limited as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces headwinds from subdued crude oil prices. With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) holding below $90.00 per barrel, commodity-linked CAD buyers are keeping a close eye on global supply developments.

Oil markets remain muted as efforts to resolve Middle Eastern supply disruptions progress: Saudi Arabia is preparing to restart exports via its East-West pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, while US President Donald Trump reported productive diplomatic talks with Iranian officials, signaling potential stability ahead.

Economic Indicator

HCOB Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Germany’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. As Europe’s main manufacturing hub, German PMI data can also be a bellwether of the sector’s health in the broader continent. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.

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