Euro area: German fiscal push reshapes growth outlook – Societe Generale

Societe Generale economists assess how the reformed German debt brake and approved 2025–2026 budgets will lift German fiscal spending and affect the Euro area. They project a larger German budget deficit, a moderate boost to German growth, notable spillovers to Euro area GDP, and mainly upside inflation risks.

German stimulus and Euro area spillovers

"After the reform of the German debt brake rule last year to fund infrastructure investment and defence spending, progress has been slower than many had hoped. With the 2025 & 2026 budgets now approved, we expect German fiscal spending to rise significantly this year. From 2.7% of GDP in 2025, we expect the German budget deficit to rise to above 4% this year and remain high through 2029."

"Two factors will play a role in determining the size of the boost to the German economy and spillovers to other European countries. The first is the available slack in the German and euro area economy, especially in light of intensifying demographic headwinds, with estimates of the output gap differing widely."

"The second is the ECB policy response: a slow response would increase positive effects on growth in Germany and abroad, but this would be at the price of higher inflation."

"We see only a small output gap in Germany, with the labour market remaining tight due to demographic pressures. In this context, and with much of the investment funds spilling over into consumption, we expect a somewhat smaller boost to the German economy than might have otherwise been anticipated while spillovers could be on the high range of possibilities."

"We expect German annual growth to be boosted by around 0.5pp to 0.8pp until 2029. Risks to inflation are mainly to the upside."

"Spillover effects to other euro area countries would be concentrated in the first two years with a cumulative increase in GDP of 0.25pp with a ceiling as high as 0.5pp."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)