EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gathers strength above 1.0800, bullish bias remains

EUR/USD gathers strength to near 1.0815 in Monday’s Asian session.
The constructive view of the pair prevails above the key 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator.
The immediate resistance level emerges at 1.0955; the downside target to watch is 1.0775.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair edges higher to around 1.0815, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Monday. The concerns over the economic slowdown in the United States by trade policies under US President Donald Trump weigh on the US dollar (USD) and create a tailwind for EUR/USD. Traders will take more cues from the preliminary reading Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March from the Eurozone, Germany, and the US, which is due later on Monday.

Technically, the positive outlook of the EUR/USD pair remains in play as the price is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 59.35, displaying bullish momentum in the near term.

The first upside target for the cross emerges at 1.0955, the high of March 18. Extended gains could see a rally to the 1.1000 psychological level. The additional upside filter to watch is 1.1111, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band.

On the flip side, the low of March 7 at 1.0775 acts as an initial support level for the major pair. The key contention level is located in the 1.0605-1.0600 zone, representing the 100-day EMA and the round figure. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to 1.0418, the low of February 20.

EUR/USD daily chart

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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