EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flat lines below 200-hour SMA/1.1550 ahead of central bank events

EUR/USD consolidates its strong recovery gains registered over the past two days.
Traders opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key Fed and ECB policy updates.
The technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on this week's goodish recovery move from the 1.1415-1.1410 area, or its lowest level since August 2025, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.1500s, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders opt to wait for the key central bank event risks before placing fresh directional bets.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its decision at the end of a two-day meeting later today, which will be followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) policy update on Thursday. Investors will look for cues about the interest rate path going forward amid concerns that a war-driven surge in energy prices would negative impact on economic growth and revive inflationary pressures.

The EUR/USD pair holds below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.1547, capping recovery attempts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 62 stays in positive territory but below overbought conditions, indicating moderate upside momentum without strong follow-through. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has slipped marginally below the signal line near the zero mark, reinforcing a loss of bullish impulse and aligning with the rejection from the longer-term average.

Immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1539, measured from the 1.1666 high to the 1.1413 low, with a clear break higher needed to expose the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1569 and then the 100-period SMA zone near 1.1580.

On the downside, initial support stands at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at 1.1509, ahead of the 23.6% level at 1.1473, where a confluence with prior intraday lows would strengthen the floor. A decisive drop below 1.1473 would open the way toward the 1.1413 swing low, while sustained trading above 1.1569 would neutralize the current bearish tone and shift focus back to the 1.1612–1.1666 resistance band.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 1-hour chart

Euro Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.99%	-0.89%	-0.40%	-0.20%	-1.72%	-1.19%	-0.62%
EUR	0.99%		0.12%	0.53%	0.79%	-0.70%	-0.20%	0.37%
GBP	0.89%	-0.12%		0.55%	0.67%	-0.83%	-0.32%	0.31%
JPY	0.40%	-0.53%	-0.55%		0.22%	-1.31%	-0.77%	-0.24%
CAD	0.20%	-0.79%	-0.67%	-0.22%		-1.56%	-0.98%	-0.42%
AUD	1.72%	0.70%	0.83%	1.31%	1.56%		0.52%	1.11%
NZD	1.19%	0.20%	0.32%	0.77%	0.98%	-0.52%		0.54%
CHF	0.62%	-0.37%	-0.31%	0.24%	0.42%	-1.11%	-0.54%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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