EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro hesitates above 1.1400 as geopolitical risks mount
- EUR/USD returns to the 1.1400 area after rejection at 1.1430 earlier on Wednesday.
- Fresh US-Iran tensions and investors' cautiousness ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes are weighing on the pair.
- The technical picture shows a potential bearish flag formation.
The Euro (EUR) shows marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday and has returned to levels just above 1.1400 during the European trading session after rejection at 1.1430. A new round of hostilities in Iran and investors’ cautiousness ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting are keeping Euro bulls in check.
US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Wednesday that the ceasefire is over and that, in his view, the memorandum of understanding is no longer in effect. These comments follow a fresh bout of reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran, and the revocation of the US authorisation to sell Iranian Oil.
The market reaction has been tame so far, as investors continue to view these events as manoeuvres to gain leverage in the negotiation process. Beyond that, investors remain wary of placing large directional bets on the USD ahead of the release of the minutes of June’s Fed meeting, eager for further insight into the central bank’s monetary policy plans.
Technical Analysis: A potential bearish flag is in progress
EUR/USD trades at 1.1405, at the bottom of the immediate ascending channel, that might turn out to be a bearish flag formation. Momentum indicators in four-hour charts are turning bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (14) easing toward 44, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping back into slightly negative territory, suggesting that bullish attempts are losing traction.
A break of the channel bottom and Tuesday's low at 1.1400 would boost expectations of a bearish flag formation that would be confirmed below the late June lows in the 1.1325-1.1330 area. The pattern's measured target is just below the late May 2025 low, at 1.1210.
On the topside, Tuesday's highs around 1.1459 and last week's trading peak in the area of 1.1475 are likely to challenge bulls in case of a positive reaction. An unlikely breach of those levels would clear the path towards the mid-June highs, near 1.1620.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.70% | -0.24% | 0.23% | 0.24% | 0.54% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | -0.22% | 0.43% | -0.52% | 0.00% | -0.03% | 0.24% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | 0.22% | 0.54% | -0.30% | 0.23% | 0.19% | 0.45% | |
| JPY | -0.70% | -0.43% | -0.54% | -0.96% | -0.35% | -0.41% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.24% | 0.52% | 0.30% | 0.96% | 0.59% | 0.55% | 0.76% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.01% | -0.23% | 0.35% | -0.59% | -0.05% | 0.22% | |
| NZD | -0.24% | 0.03% | -0.19% | 0.41% | -0.55% | 0.05% | 0.27% | |
| CHF | -0.54% | -0.24% | -0.45% | 0.19% | -0.76% | -0.22% | -0.27% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
