EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears await 1.1115-1.1110 support break as focus remains on ECB

EUR/USD attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session amid a modest pickup in USD demand.
France’s fiscal woes and political gridlock further weigh on the Euro ahead of the ECB meeting.
Weakness below 1.1115-1.1110 should pave the way for deeper losses amid a bearish setup.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair meets with fresh supply during the Asian session on Thursday, stalling the previous day's modest recovery from the 1.1110 area, or its lowest level since May 2025 amid the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through as traders opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event and crucial US economic releases.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its policy decision later today and is expected to keep interest rates steady, while maintaining a hawkish bias toward a potential 25-basis-point (bps) hike in December. However, concerns about France’s deepening debt levels and political gridlock ahead of next year’s election might continue to undermine the shared currency. The USD, on the other hand, regains positive traction amid hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair remains to the downside.

Even from a technical perspective, spot prices hold a bearish near-term bias below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the -hour chart. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40.2 hints at still-lacklustre upside momentum despite a marginal improvement in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, whose line has turned slightly positive. This, in turn, validates the negative outlook, though bears might await a break below the 1.1115-1.1110 area before positioning for an extension of the well-established downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so.

On the topside, traders are likely to monitor intraday swings around 1.1140 for signs of either base-building or continuation of the bearish sequence. Meanwhile, any attempted recovery is more likely to confront initial resistance ahead of the 1.1200 round figure. This is followed by the 100-period EMA at 1.1215. Sustained strength above this level would be needed to ease the current downside pressure and allow for a more constructive recovery phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Economic Indicator

ECB Rate On Deposit Facility

One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings.

AUD/USD edges higher above 0.7050 as hot CPI lifts RBA rate hike odds

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7055 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar edges higher against the US Dollar as hotter inflation data bolsters expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes. The US September Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report will be in the spotlight later on Thursday.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 as USD stalls the post-FOMC corrective slide

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Thursday, climbing back above 158.00 as the US Dollar reverses part of the post-FOMC pullback from a two-week high. Bulls, however, await key US macro data – the Advance Q3 GDP and the PCE Price Index – before positioning for further gains. Focus will then shift to the crucial BoJ policy update on Friday amid firming expectations for a December rate hike.

Gold corrects after three-day winning streak ahead of key US data

Gold is down 0.65% to near $4,040 after failing to extend its three-day winning streak on Thursday. The precious metal comes under pressure as the US Dollar regains ground after a corrective move on Wednesday, following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement.

XRP and XLM lose ground as hawkish Fed tone weighs

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) remain under pressure on Thursday as bearish derivatives positioning and on-chain signals weigh on sentiment. XRP slides toward key support at $1.30, while XLM gives back some of its recent gains. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at its two-day October policy meeting.

Fed's recap: A cautious hold with a clear warning on inflation

The Federal Reserve (Fed) held its policy rate steady at 3.75%-4.00%, but it wasn’t a unanimous decision. Among two officials who wanted a 25-basis-point hike were Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, while Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed would use the coming flow of information to decide whether further action is needed. The statement presented a resilient economy.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.