EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA caps recovery, flash German HICP data awaited

EUR/USD reflects a subdued performance near 1.1640, while investors await US President Trump’s approval of the Iran agreement.
Investors await the preliminary German HICP data for May, which will be released later in the day.
The Symmetrical Triangle formation exhibits a sharp volatility contraction.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair trades subduedly at around 1.1640 during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair edges down as the US Dollar (USD) ticks higher, with investors awaiting United States (US) President Donald Trump’s approval OF the 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is marginally up to near 99.10, but is still close to its Thursday’s low of 98.95.

On Thursday, media reports showed that the US-Iran agreement of a 60-day MoU has been finalized, which includes uninterrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the US blockade on Iranian sea ports, but needs final approval from US President Trump.

Meanwhile, investors await the preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for May, which will be published at 12:00 GMT. Month-on-month HICP is estimated to have grown at a moderate pace of 0.2% against 0.5% in April. On an annualized basis, the German HICP growth is expected to have cooled down to 2.8% from the previous reading of 2.9%.

Ahead of the German HICP data, the inflation of Germany's six states shows that price pressures cooled down in all of them.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades almost flat at around 1.1640. The major currency pair remains capped by the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 1.1659. The formation of the Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern with the Relative Strength Index (14) oscillating inside the 40.00-60.00 zone hints at a lack of directional conviction.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-period EMA near 1.1660, followed by the former resistance trend-line break level at 1.1732, where sellers could look to reassert control if tested. On the downside, the key structural floor is the upward support trend-line break level at 1.1592; a sustained drop below that zone would likely reinforce the prevailing bearish bias and open the door to a deeper retracement towards 1.1500.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold remains vulnerable below $4,200 on Fed hike bets

Gold is under mild selling pressure on Monday, trading at around $4,170. The US Dollar advances modestly in thin trading, supported by bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates at least one more time before year-end.

Bitcoin struggles as ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty weigh

Bitcoin hovers around $83,600 on Monday after a 3.1% correction last week. US-listed spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $681.10 million last week, snapping the three-week inflow streak. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed signals keep investors cautious.

The week ahead: A critical week as earnings and CPI test market

The Oil price is relatively stable this morning, and US and European stock markets are poised to open higher, as risk sentiment shrugs off an escalation in the Middle East and concerns about rising bond yields.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?