EUR/USD might suffer more sustainably if more painful rate hikes might soon become necessary – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Economists at Commerzbank analyze ECB policy outlook and its implications for the EUR/USD pair.

If no more steps are required there are no reasons to extrapolate yesterday’s EUR weakness

The Italian government is already voicing furious criticism of the ECB rate hikes. However, we know that on the ECB board, the monetary policy ideas are extremely tightly correlated with the home countries of the board members. While that is the case, we have to fear that these political preferences could potentially affect monetary policy decisions.

That is not an issue for the next one or two ECB rate hikes. They can be implemented against the criticism of the Italian Prime Minister. If that is it and no more steps are required there are no reasons to extrapolate yesterday’s EUR weakness.

However, the Euro might suffer more sustainably if we have to fear that more painful rate hikes might soon become necessary.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD recovers toward 0.7000 amid improving mood

AUD/USD is firming up toward 0.7000 in Asia on Tuesday, helped by improving market mood. A pause in the US Dollar rebound also aids the pair's upside. However, geopolitical risks and caution ahead of AI tech earnings report could limit the pair.

USD/JPY flatlines near 158.50 as markets seek direction

USD/JPY steadies around 158.50 in the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Japan’s National Consumer Price Index inflation data later on Friday. Meanwhile, elevated US bond yields provide some support to the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

Gold sellers remain in control while below 21-day SMA

Gold is falling for the third straight day on Tuesday, having run into sellers on several occasions at the $4,200 level. The bullion awaits a clear trading impetus amid uncertainty about the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook and looming geopolitical risks.

Ripple and Cardano face downside risk as Solana consolidates

Top altcoins, including Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL), stall on Tuesday after a bearish week, suggesting a brief pause in selling pressure. The technical outlook for XRP and ADA indicates a downside bias, while SOL shows mixed signals, with the price holding above $100 as momentum eases. Ripple trades at $1.2974 at press time on Tuesday, keeping a bearish near-term tone.

Markets now see no hike in October, but inflation is still a major concern

US inflation has returned to the spotlight after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports showed a significant acceleration in price pressures. The data raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer, pushing interest-rate expectations higher and putting pressure on stocks and gold.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.