EUR/USD looking for 1.1000 as risk appetite shrugs off Eurozone HICP inflation miss

EUR/USD up nearly half a percent on Tuesday despite a below-expectation HICP inflation print.
Plenty of US data still on the docket this week to drive the EUR/USD into the holiday weekend.
EU & US Consumer Confidence up next for Wednesday.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The EUR/USD is drifting towards the 1.1000 major handle once more after failing to capture the key technical level last week. The pair struck an intraday high of 1.1009 last Thursday, but gave up the high ground heading into the weekend.

Eurozone Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the European equivalent to Consumer Price Index, missed the market on Tuesday, with November’s EU inflation index declining 0.6%, below the market’s forecast of -0.5%, in-line with the earlier preliminary print.

Market sentiment is decidedly risk-on for Tuesday, putting downside pressure on the US Dollar (USD) heading toward the midpoint of 2023’s last full trading week. US Building Permits in November came in slightly lower, printing at 1.46 million versus the forecast 1.47 million, declining slightly from October’s 1.498 million (revised up slightly from 1.487 million). US housing data balanced out with a better-than-expected print in US Housing Starts for November, coming in at 1.56 million versus the forecast 1.36 million and stepping over October’s 1.359 million (revised downward from 1.372 million).

Coming down the pipeline will be the last print of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers in 2023 on Thursday, followed by US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index numbers on Friday.

US GDP for the third quarter is broadly expected to hold steady at 5.2%, while annualized Core PCE is forecast to tick down slightly from 3.5% to 3.3%.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD remains well-bid in the near-term after last week’s hard rally that saw the pair crack straight through the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the 1.0800 handle, a broad weakening in the US Dollar is giving the Euro a chance to scramble for higher ground.

Friday’s pullback after a failed run at the 1.1000 major price level saw the pair hesitate back into the 1.0900 region, but this week sees the EUR/USD grinding higher once more.

Last week’s rally also saw the pair retake the bullish side of the long-term 200-day SMA, extending the Euro’s rebound from October’s bottom bids of 1.0450.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Technical Levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0977
Today Daily Change	0.0057
Today Daily Change %	0.52
Today daily open	1.092

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0877
Daily SMA50	1.0746
Daily SMA100	1.0754
Daily SMA200	1.0831

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0931
Previous Daily Low	1.0892
Previous Weekly High	1.1009
Previous Weekly Low	1.0742
Previous Monthly High	1.1017
Previous Monthly Low	1.0517
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0916
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0907
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0897
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0875
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0858
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0936
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0953
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0976

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin and Ethereum edge lower, XRP extends recovery as macro headwinds weigh

The broader cryptocurrency market is consolidating on Friday, with Bitcoin paring losses slightly above $84,000. Ethereum declines in tandem with BTC. Ripple (XRP), meanwhile, paints a different picture.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.