EUR/USD dips below 1.09 as Fed June rate hike odds jump to 93%

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

The bid tone around the US dollar spiked, pushing the EUR/USD below 1.09 handle as the probability of a rate hike in June as represented by the CME data jumped from 69.6% to 93.8%.

What’s behind the spike in rate hike odds?

The Fed refrained from making any explicit hints towards the June rate hike. Neither did the statement talk about the plans to trim the balance sheet this year. Thus, the spike in the rate hike odds is slightly confusing.

Moreover, it could be attributed to the fact that Fed acknowledged the rise in inflation. The policy statement said the inflation is now running close to the Fed’s 2 % goal.

The spike in the rate hike odds has been accompanied by the jump in the 2-yr treasury yield to 1.302%; up four basis points on the day.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair was last seen trading around 1.0896. The immediate support is seen around 1.0888 (previous day’s low), under which losses could be extended to 1.0852 (Apr 27 low). A daily close below the same would open doors for 1.0775 (Apr 20 high).

On the higher side, the first resistance is seen at 1.0991 (weekly 100-MA) ahead of 1.1039 (Oct 20 high) and 1.11 (psychological resistance).

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

GBP/USD holds near Feb. 11 highs as bulls await breakout above 1.3660

The GBP/USD pair trades with a positive bias around mid-1.3600s at the start of a new week and remains well within striking distance of its highest level since February 11, touched on Friday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders and backs the case for an extension of a nearly one-month-old uptrend.

EUR/USD holds steady amid US debt strategy

EUR/USD remains stronger for the fourth successive trading day, hovering around 1.1680 during the Asian hours. The currency pair holds its ground as the US Dollar struggles under pressure from newly announced United States fiscal moves. The Treasury Department surprised financial markets by pledging to at least double its buybacks of longer-dated government debt in an attempt to rein in rising bond yields.

Gold keeps rallying toward $4,700, fresh three-month highs

Gold extends its last week's stellar performance into Asian trading on Monday, refreshing three-month highs beyond $4,600. The precious metal capitalizes on persistent US Dollar weakness, following the US Treasury's buyback plan amid fresh US-Canada trade tensions.

Bitcoin holds above $77,000 – PENGU and AAVE eye further gains

The broader cryptocurrency market is gaining momentum with Bitcoin above $77,000 holding its 23% gains from last week. Renewed institutional demand, with $1.92 billion in inflows last week, the largest so far in 2026, backs the risk-on sentiment. Pudgy Penguins and Aave have emerged as top performers over the last 24 hours.

US Dollar Weekly Forecast: Enter Jackson, mind the (budget) Hole

It was not geopolitics, the US-Japan joint FX intervention to support the beleaguered Japanese currency or the omnipresent bets on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) might do in the second half of the year that kept the US Dollar (USD) well on the back foot over the past five days.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.