EUR/PLN: Drifts lower as NBP on hold – Societe Generale

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Societe Generale analysts note that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate at 3.75% and markets expect no further changes through 2026. Governor Glapinski’s press conference is expected to be uneventful unless he sounds very hawkish. EUR/PLN is drifting towards 4.22 after reversing its conflict-driven spike, while Polish bonds still trade well above pre-conflict yields.

Steady policy and bond lag

"In CEE [Central and Eastern European] , the NBP left its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% and markets are pricing no change from the NBP for the rest of 2026."

"NBP governor Glapinski’s press conference should be a non-event unless he comes across as extremely hawkish today."

"EUR/PLN is quietly drifting towards 4.22, fully giving up the ME [Middle East] conflict driven spike but the Polish bonds have a long way ahead for recovery with the 10y POLGB still about 65bp about the pre-conflict level of 4.92%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD consolidates near 0.7000 as USD stays weak

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during Thursday’s Asian session, consolidating the previous day’s recovery gains from a near three-week low as the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections and Iran diplomacy hopes continue to weigh on the US Dollar. Bulls, however, seem hesitant as focus shifts to Friday’s crucial US NFP report.

USD/JPY drifts lower to 158.25 on hawkish BoJ Minutes, weak USD

USD/JPY trades with a negative bias for the second straight day on Thursday as hawkish BoJ Minutes, showing members agreed to keep raising rates, and intervention risks support the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, US midterm election results and hopes for Iran diplomacy keep the US Dollar depressed as focus shifts to Friday’s US NFP report.

Gold trims gains, returns to $4,100

Gold now surrenders part of its initial bull run and appears on its way to challenge the key $4,100 region per troy ounce on Thursday. The precious metal extends it recovery on the back of the tepid advance in the Greenback and mixed US Treasury yields following the US midterm elections.

XRP gains ground as Ripple CEO says US crypto users aren’t going anywhere after midterms, calls for clear rules

Ripple (XRP) ticks higher on Thursday, trading near $1.32. The remittance token is up roughly 10% from last week’s trough at $1.20, suggesting that the path of least resistance is gradually flipping upward.

NFP stress test: Six payrolls releases, measured in daily-loss limits

Friday's US employment report is usually previewed in terms of the headline number and the reaction in the Dollar. For a growing group of traders, those running funded or evaluation accounts with a fixed daily loss limit, there is a more practical question: how much of that limit can the first hour consume, regardless of direction?

US Dollar breaks below 101.50 as Democrats sweep Congress

The US Dollar (USD) comes under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling around 0.5% to trade near 101.35 after sliding below the 101.50 level. The Greenback retreats to its lowest level in four weeks as investors reassess the political and economic outlook following the Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the United States (US) midterm elections.