EUR/JPY Price Forecast: SMAs confluence blocks bulls near 185.00

EUR/JPY stalls near 184.70 despite two-day recovery attempt.
SMA confluence at 184.72/73 caps immediate bullish momentum.
Break above 185.00 exposes July high at 187.47.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The EUR/JPY registers two consecutive days of gains, but on Tuesday, buyers failed to gain traction as they faced a confluence of key resistance levels near the 184.70 area. The cross-pair is poised to end the day unchanged, near its opening price of 184.69.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

The cross is approaching the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at around 184.72/73, with the 50-day SMA showing strong bullish momentum that could carry EUR/JPY past the 200-day SMA, which sits below the current spot price at 184.05.

A decisive break above the confluence of the 50- and 100-day SMAs opens the door to challenge 185.00. Once surpassed, the uptrend gains relevance, with traders eyeing the next cycle high at 187.47, the July 29 high.

On the flip side, the first support for EUR/JPY is the 200-day SMA at 184.05. Once surpassed, the next area of interest would be the May 6 swing low of 182.05, followed by the August 3 low of 179.37.

EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.03%	0.06%	0.08%	0.16%	0.30%	0.43%	0.18%
EUR	-0.03%		0.04%	0.06%	0.13%	0.26%	0.40%	0.15%
GBP	-0.06%	-0.04%		0.00%	0.13%	0.25%	0.38%	0.13%
JPY	-0.08%	-0.06%	0.00%		0.09%	0.22%	0.36%	0.11%
CAD	-0.16%	-0.13%	-0.13%	-0.09%		0.14%	0.28%	0.02%
AUD	-0.30%	-0.26%	-0.25%	-0.22%	-0.14%		0.13%	-0.11%
NZD	-0.43%	-0.40%	-0.38%	-0.36%	-0.28%	-0.13%		-0.24%
CHF	-0.18%	-0.15%	-0.13%	-0.11%	-0.02%	0.11%	0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

GBP/USD turns negative; slips back to 1.3530

GBP/USD comes under pressure and weakens toward the 1.3530 zone on Tuesday. Cable thus leaves behind two daily upticks in a row and retreats further from Monday’s multi-week tops past 1.3570 following humble gains in the Greenback and disheartening UK jobs data.

EUR/USD comes under pressure near 1.1570

EUR/USD could not sustain the earlier bullish attempt toward the proximity of 1.1600 the figure, coming under fresh downside pressure and revisiting the 1.1580-1.1570 band as the NA session draws to a close on Tuesday. The better tone in the US Dollar in the latter part of the day weighs on the pair amid steady volatility in the Middle East. Looking forward, the release of the FOMC Minutes takes centre stage on Wednesday.

Gold remains offered around $4,350

Gold accelerates its daily correction and revisits the $4,350 zone per troy ounce on Tuesday. The precious metal sets aside two daily advances in a row and follows the absence of direction in the US Dollar, declining US Treasury yields across the curve and continuous uncertainty in the Middle East crisis.

Bitcoin volatility falls below Nasdaq as market activity hits multi-year low

Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility has fallen below that of the Nasdaq for only the fifth time on record, as subdued trading activity and declining volumes point to an unusually quiet period, according to a Tuesday report from K33. BTC's 30-day volatility has dropped to 1.132%, marking its fourth-lowest reading of the 2020s. Seven-day volatility also dropped to 0.52%, its lowest level since 2023.

Fiscal concerns and doubts on Fed independence send US yields to long-term highs

US Treasury yields keep rising across the curve this week, with the yield for the 30-year Treasury bond reaching its highest level since 2007, during the global financial crisis, at 5.33% so far on Monday. A mix of concerns about the ballooning US fiscal deficit and growing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s Independence are increasing pressure on US Government Bonds.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.