|

EUR: Hormuz inflation shock and EU politics – Rabobank

Rabobank analysts flag that final March CPI across the Eurozone will refine how the Hormuz-driven energy shock feeds into Euro-area inflation. Politically, Hungary’s new government may unblock the EU’s €90B Ukraine loan and supports NATO, while Brussels pushes qualified majority voting on foreign policy, underscoring evolving EU governance that could influence Euro sentiment over time.

Eurozone CPI and shifting EU stance

"In Europe, final March CPI prints across the Eurozone will refine the unfolding picture of the Hormuz inflation shock."

"Yes, in Europe, following Orban’s electoral defeat in Hungary, new PM Magyar has hinted at ending the block on the EU’s key €90B Ukraine loan, and has reiterated his support for NATO, if not necessarily for Ukraine itself. And, yes, on the back of this, European Commission President Von der Leyen is now pushing to end individual countries’ vetoes over EU foreign policy in favour of qualified majority voting."

"However, this remains a politically contentious issue even within the most pro-European member states, while the above again points to the ongoing structural shifts underway in our geopolitical and geoeconomic architecture, with major market implications, which the Iran war is naturally accelerating."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold challenges its 200-day SMA near $4,530

Gold’s decline gathers fresh steam, hitting weekly lows while disputing its critical 200-day SMA near $4,530 per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s increasing weakness comes in response to the generalised upbeat tone in the US Dollar and the widespread rebound in US Treasury yields, as investors continue to reprice a Fed rate hike in September.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rally loses steam despite steady ETF inflows

Bitcoin is back below $80,000 at the time of writing on Friday, after a second attempt at breaking resistance between $81,000 and $82,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum and Ripple mirror Bitcoin’s cooling trend, with ETH sliding to $2,500 and XRP falling toward $1.40 support.

Week ahead – RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP

Dollar rebounds ahead of ISM PMI and NFP data. RBNZ is expected to raise rates; focus to fall on forward guidance. BoC is set to remain on hold; will it raise rates in 2027?

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.