EUR holds steady in tight range ahead of NA session – Scotiabank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) is entering Tuesday’s NA session flat to the US Dollar (USD) as it extends its tight consolidation for a fourth consecutive session and trades within a remarkably narrow range in the mid-1.16s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

German trade data mixed as weak imports weigh on demand

"Fundamental releases have been limited to mixed trade figures from Germany, where a stronger trade balance was flattered by unexpected weakness in imports (signaling weaker internal demand). Rate expectations are showing signs of stabilization following their recent upward adjustment, reflecting renewed hawkishness from key policymakers at the ECB."

"The shift in rate expectations has lifted yield spreads and pulled them to fresh highs at levels last (briefly) seen in September 2024. Measures of sentiment are confirming the moves in spot, and the EUR’s correlation to risk reversals is elevated."

"The RSI is steady in the upper 50s, reflecting bullish momentum as the EUR consolidates its recent break above the 50 day MA (1.1607) trend level. The local range has been broken – to the upside – but follow through has been lacking as we await a push to the lower 1.17 area. We see little meaningful resistance ahead of 1.18 and look to a near-term range bound between 1.16 and 1.17."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

USD/JPY holds pullback from 161.80 on hawkish BoJ-speak

USD/JPY is holding above 161.00 in the Asian session on Friday, on a retreat from its highest level since July 2024 set the previous day. Hawkish BoJ commentary and April Minutes affirm further rate hike expectations, offsetting the softer Japanese National CPI print and support the Japanese Yen as intervention fears loom.

AUD/USD attacks 0.7000 amid stronger US Dollar

AUD/USD attacks 0.7000 in the Asian session on Friday, remaining close to the weekly low, and seems poised to register modest weekly losses. The US Dollar sits near its highest level since May 2025 as the Fed's hawkish tilt overshadows optimism over the US-Iran peace deal, weighing on the pair.

Gold sits at weekly lows below $4,200 as Fed's hawkish tilt boosts USD

Gold falls for the third consecutive day and weakens below $4,200, sitting at a fresh weekly low in the Asian session on Friday. Despite the latest optimism over a US-Iran peace deal, the Fed's hawkish tilt helps the US Dollar preserve its strong weekly gains to over a yearly high, undermining the non-yielding bullion.

Ethereum: Tokenization and network activity skyrocket in Q1 despite DeFi contraction

Following months of crashing prices and macro-driven fragility, Ethereum saw mixed performance across key metrics in the first quarter of 2026, according to Token Terminal. In its quarterly Ethereum report, the onchain analytical platform highlighted contraction across DeFi-focused metrics such as lending, trading volume and fees, while tokenization and throughput expanded.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.

The next big AI trade may not be about chips or software

Artificial intelligence has already created some of the biggest winners in modern market history. Chipmakers have surged, data centre construction is booming, and electricity demand forecasts are changing globally.