EUR/GBP rises as UK Q4 GDP data weighs

In Thursday's session, the EUR/GBP traded at 0.8560, showing a gain of 0.25% as the Sterling weakened due to softer-than-expected Q4 GDP data. However, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to remain hawkish and the differing monetary policies with the European Central Bank (ECB) may eventually benefit the GBP.

In line with that, while markets expect the first rate cut in June by the ECB, economists foresee 125 bp of total easing within the next year, a decrease from the 150 bp predicted entered February and in case investors start to see less easing, the pair could continue rising.

Meanwhile, the UK saw its first consecutive quarters of contraction since early 2020, including a 0.3% QoQ decline in Q4, surpassing the 0.1% forecast. However, despite, the weak data, markets are expecting that the BoE won’t rush to cut rates, and as for now, the consensus is that the total easing will be between 75 bps and 100 bps in 2024. As long as the divergence between the BoE and ECB persists, the pound’s losses are limited.

EUR/GBP technical analysis

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the EUR/GBP pair is currently near to jump to positive territory, indicating that buyers are gaining ground. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has been consistently positive indicating that positive momentum is strong.

However, it is important to note that the broader perspective, represented by the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), still favors sellers as the pair trades below the 100 and 200-day SMAs. That being said, the bulls managed to jump above the 20-day average so for the short term, the outlook might start to turn positive for them.

EUR/GBP daily chart