0.8447 under pressure: EUR/GBP tests 16-month lows with France in the spotlight
- EUR/GBP extends its broader bearish trend and tests 16-month lows at 0.8447.
- Concerns about a credit crisis in France are weighing heavily on the Euro.
- The Pound has drawn support from strong UK data and hawkish BoE rhetoric in previous weeks.
The Euro (EUR) has resumed its broader bearish trend against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after a mild recovery attempt at the end of last week. EUR/GBP bears are testing the 16-month low of 0.8447 hit on Wednesday, as the common currency depreciates against its main peers amid a mix of ballooning debt, a political deadlock and spreading social unrest that is setting all eyes on France.
The spread between the 10-year French Obligations Assimilables du Trésor (OAT) and its equivalent German Bund escalated to 141 basis points on Monday, the highest differential since the financial crisis in 2012. Meanwhile, the student protests extend for the third week, posing an enormous challenge for a cabinet lacking parliamentary support for any significant reforms ahead, at least before the 2027 Presidential elections.
The Pound, on the other hand, is showing one of the best G8 currency performances so far in October. Analysts at Commerzbank argue that “the improved growth outlook should make it easier for the Bank of England to raise rates further in order to lean against inflation,” which increases Sterling's attractiveness among speculative traders.
Technical Analysis: Below 0.8447, bears would target the 0.8415 area
EUR/GBP trades just at 0.8447 as of writing, maintaining a bearish near-term tone after dropping around 1.7% over the previous two weeks. Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart have reached oversold levels. The Relative Strength Index (14) slipped below the 30 mark, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds in negative territory, hinting at persisting downside pressure even as the pair approaches stretched momentum readings.
Below the mentioned 0.8447 pivot (October 7 low), bears might be attracted by the early June 2025 lows, between 0.8405 and 0.8415 ahead of the May 2025 bottom at 0.8355. Upside attempts, on the contrary, are likely to face a cluster of resistances in the area around 0.8485 – which capped gains on Thursday and Friday – the October 6 high, just above 0.8490, and the October 1 low, just above 0.8500.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.21% | 0.07% | 0.18% | 0.27% | 0.35% | |
| EUR | -0.22% | -0.22% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.06% | 0.09% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | 0.22% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.33% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | 0.05% | -0.19% | -0.16% | -0.04% | 0.09% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.16% | -0.03% | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.21% | 0.28% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | 0.06% | -0.15% | 0.04% | -0.12% | 0.16% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | -0.27% | -0.09% | -0.30% | -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.16% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.35% | -0.12% | -0.33% | -0.13% | -0.28% | -0.16% | -0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
