EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro remains depressed with rallies capped below 0.8400
- EUR/GBP retreats to the 0.8370 area, a few pips above YTD lows of 0.8361.
- High Oil prices and ongoing concerns about France's debt are holding back Euro bulls.
- The pair should break above 0.8400 to confirm a bullish correction.
The Euro (EUR) has retraced previous gains against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, weighed down by high Oil prices and the ongoing concerns about France’s fiscal health. The EUR/GBP pair flatlines just above 0.8370 after being rejected at the 0.8400 area on Monday, with the year-to-date low of 0.8361 at a short distance.
Investors, however, are wary of placing large bets ahead of monetary policy decisions from some of the world's major central banks this week. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday and is expected to leave interest rates on hold, hinting at a hike in the coming months, as inflation remains well above target.
In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) meets next week, and investors are nearly fully pricing in a 25-basis-point hike, after the upbeat Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the hot consumer inflation figures released last week.
Analysts at ING argue that “Sterling is riding on the coat-tails of PM Andy Burnham's popularity,” and that “next week's UK budget looks unlikely to derail the recent EUR/GBP break below 0.8400.” Looking ahead, “the euro still has plenty of room to drop on French politics; EUR/GBP can stay offered in a 0.8360-0,8430 range for the time being,” says the bank in a note.
Technical Analysis: Bears have lost momentum, but bulls remain absent
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8375, consolidating losses a few pips above year-to-date lows. Momentum indicators on 4-hour charts show fading bearish pressure as the Relative Strength Index (14) holds around 40 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) pops up to positive levels, although bulls are still absent.
Bulls would need to breach the 0.8400 area (October 21 and Monday's high) to confirm a bullish reaction and shift the focus towards the October 19 and 20 highs near 0.8430. Further up, bulls would meet a stronger cap at the 0.8480-0.8490 area (October 8, 9 and 15 highs)
On the downside, immediate support is located at the May 2025 low of 0.8355. Below here, bears might feel attracted by the April 2025 floor, at 0.8315.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.08% | 0.03% | -0.16% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.13% | 0.01% | 0.09% | -0.04% | -0.09% | -0.30% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | -0.01% | 0.06% | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.30% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.09% | -0.06% | -0.11% | -0.17% | -0.36% | -0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.11% | -0.05% | -0.25% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.17% | 0.05% | -0.19% | 0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.36% | 0.25% | 0.19% | 0.24% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.14% | 0.01% | -0.04% | -0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
