EUR/GBP gathers strength to near 0.8500 on weaker UK GDP data

EUR/GBP strengthens to near 0.8495 in Thursday’s early European session, up 0.27% on the day.
UK GDP contracted 0.3% MoM in April, weaker than expected.
ECB’s Lagarde said the central bank is in a good position on interest rates, but hinted at a rate pause.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The EUR/GBP cross gains momentum to around 0.8495 during the early European session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) after the release of UK growth numbers. The attention will shift to the speeches from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, who are set to speak later on Thursday.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday showed that the UK economy contracted 0.3% MoM in April, compared to an expansion of 0.2% in March. This figure came in worse than the estimation of a 0.1% decline in the reported period.

Meanwhile, the monthly Industrial Production fell by 0.6% in April versus -0.7% prior. This reading came in below the market consensus of -0.5%. The GBP attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the downbeat UK GDP data.

The weaker-than-expected UK GDP data, along with the soft UK employment data released earlier this week could increase market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by more than investors had projected earlier. This might exert some selling pressure on the GBP in the near term.

On the Euro front, the hawkish remarks from the ECB could lift the shared currency. ECB President Christine Lagarde said after the policy meeting that the central bank might be approaching the end of the easing cycle. Lagarde further stated over the weekend that the central bank rates are now in a "good position" despite the extremely high uncertainty being triggered by Trump's tariff threats.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

Week ahead – Central bank and earnings bonanza could roil markets

Fed, ECB and BoJ to sit on the sidelines after September hikes. But RBNZ and BoC poised to lift borrowing costs. Inflation data out of the US, Japan, Australia to also be important. UK budget: no surprises would be good news for the Pound.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.